Why wouldn't anyone see bearish setups in a downtrend?
Point I tried to make was that they do after it's too late.
Going from being Bloomberg and seeing and posting it after it's done, to trading it and being a trader is the hard bit :P
Quote:
If you take the chart that you are clearly seeing a 200-500 pip downmove, then wait until the week's end, you could quite possibly see a bearish engulfing. That would infer that there will be more downwards movement throughout the coming weeks.
Obviously. But I've found I am just not good at trading weekly and holding and hoping that long due to watching the charts too much.
Also the core is this: if you get a steep drop that's bigger than the usual daily range, those people that DO use indicators will get signals saying it went too far and start buying up again. Then you or anyone might enter during this retrace and - and this is the tricky bit and purely my fantasy - if you're unlucky there are too many stops moved down already, they plop, people keep jumping on the wagon of the retrace, it goes too far, exceeds all sensible fib levels and...PIN BAR!
And you just fed Mike and helped generate a setup that just shows direction opposite to the trade you are in.
What I mean - every overextended move will eventually snap back. That's what raczekfx has been saying about oil the last 5-6 posts :P
Or you forget to zoom out because you're so anxious to sell the low of the current chart that you do, clap your hands as the trade moves 20 pips, the chart scrolls and...ooops, there's that weekly TL, darn darn darn -10 -20 -50 what do I do -60 -80 oh no -100 STOPPED.
You know? Better to be in it before you've already moved too far...
You want to be in the move that generates the exaggeration, not get stomped on by the retrace generating players and have to GUESS (and imho it really is guessing, I couldn't find a good spot where I would reshort USDJPY if I had to right now) what and where to enter...not to forgot you also get insane stop sizes given the range moved.
Selling chart lows / buying highs never did me much good(exception is when it's just an addon to pre-existing trades and risk is just a mere fragment and if it goes sour then it's off your already profitable trade, not your account).
So really there are 50 reasons to me why you should be in the move before it happens and not chase setups at the top or bottom of the chart, because then it is already too late.
Quote:
Instead, if you were to wait, then it could turn into a long term trade, in which you could capitalize on very easily. What do you think?
I wouldn't wait for the long term setup(I can't trade that), I would wait for a new setup after price inevitably pulls back again(come on, I just posted enough daily charts to show that this happens eventually)...this is exactly the move those people chasing after the market(and usually forgetting to use any setups at all since "hey there was this fib there and well uh..yea, that fib!") will likely be trapped and sucked into red in. Happened to me often enough at least
Also what good is a daily BEOB at the bottom of the chart turning into a weekly BEOB at the bottom of the chart? Same trouble to me..
Just writing so much about it since I've found it a very bad thing to do often enough myself.
thanks very much for your view on my chart. I learned a lot from your posts and statements like these are why I came here in the first place. To learn from my mistakes and to improve my trading skills.
Cheers,
Chris
Hey Chris
You're welcome.
Well I'm sure you will learn a lot, you've got the right attitude
Just wanted to say I don't want this to be viewed as solely a reply to your chart post, but I was trying to point out a general problem whenever these sort of things happen on the charts. Everyone's addressed and me first and foremost as always(as long as I make mistakes I'm still just another guy trying to learn all this properly..which will most likely be forever lol).
You're right of course with trends being able to run 1000+ pips easy. (I remember trading around 1.2xxx EURUSD last year when 1.3 was the next "really big figure", not 1.5 hehehehe)
The question to me just always is where do I/we best enter without managing to hit those 100-200+++ pips retraces that kick us out before we're even in
Wishing you lots of success and learning progress in the time ahead,
It's only one half to be trying to help teach folks what you know, the other half is having the folks who actually want to be taught...you're all helping to make things what they are just as much by being polite, showing respect and willingness to learn in this fashion...and that's what will always make this thread (and the PF) stand out from the rest
(psst Tiki...a rose is a rose is a rose ;p Just beware of thorns!)
I think I understand what you are saying perfectly.
Don't chase the market.
I am simply saying that entering when the chart is "bleeding red" is not chasing the market if there is a good setup.
Then you did agree.
Either way, my post wasn't about pips, but I was trying to make a point about psychological thought processes, "trigger finger fear" and "fear of missing out" and so forth. Emotions and when to best be trading/entering/optimizing r/r, not saying when or not a move may or not end.
I took that one from 4h as well as the daily IB after BEOB breakdown as addon.
Question for me now is - has GBPUSD topped out at 2.115? (Or at least had enough to either correct a little bit or pause)
If so, a few hundred pips there alone would lend GJ enough room to smash lower a loooot. Roughly 2-3 GJ pips to a GBPUSD pip I think? And maybe another 200 left in UJ...hmmm...well, let's see whether or not we can get somewhere =)
P.S. Looking at my charts lately puts me into shock..they're no longer the most cluttered ones around! I must be sick! ;p
Mike's prolly gonna miss my "Star Wars Charts"... ;P
I'm actually starting to get fed up when too much stuff is on them now...I take that as a good sign =)
(the "you" is as in "one" - in general/anyone who would take such a trade, me included ;p)
I couldn't find any feed that would give me Hipster's PB, but looking at price now makes for a great example of some of the price behavior I meant in my last "chasing the lows of the chart" essay.
Price dropped after that PB, yes.
For a handful.
Then what happened? It came back to essentially at least entry levels, if not past it. I.e. if you didn't close out in basically the next 4 hours or moved your stop up to b/e as soon it was out 1-200 pips, you likely went back into red again.
Now in this current environment bounces might be shortlived and weak, but imagine now you didn't move the stop and are seeing it move deeper and deeper into the red by the minute...
Basically what I am trying to say is you end up risking a botched trade if you weren't around to babysit / trail it or if you didn't scalp it for a handful of pips(relatively speaking).
Currently it even looks like it might ponder going past the gap levels again.
Anyhow - my point was: entering at this low woulda been stressful and scalpy, entering around 6-800 pips higher on a daily trade: a loooot less stressful and "chasy".
(post not aiming at rating Hip's trading but to point out what I meant when I talked about the price behavior / chart lows risk. It's all overstretched rubber band stuff at some point :P)
but hey -who said that weekly charts cant make you money?? i am with open trades on 3 pairs that provided me weekly PB's - USDCAD, GBPUSD and a 2 week EURCAD, which i took with smaller risk than the other 2..
This is really great Mamutot =)
I hope you stay strong enough to trade it according to your plan
Hey Mike... you're kinda turning me on what with all the kindness you've been spreading around on the forums as of late...
I think he's not from this world. Most likely an alien sent to us from some outer space planet where they breed one pure altruistic being once every millenium, to send across the galaxy, helping those in need
P.S. And I've seen Mr T. secretly hug warm fluffly animals - the Mike aura spreads! ;p
4hr pin about to fail on GBP/USD. Entry would have been triggered after pin appeared at previous support (now resistance) and the 38 fib from the highs to the lows.
Glad I don't trade this TF.
Mine shows either a NB or a doji on that timeframe feed (there was no PB on my IBFX feed) => stiltman..didn't even get to "leg parity" on this one and after it closed it just moved on up.
Wasn't really a "true" setup if you ask me, just a bit of s/r bouncing (look to the left for 4h lows + the fib) along the way of the retrace..
Watching the 50-61% area much more intently
Btw, there WAS a PB on "your" TF at the same time though, and really nice looking in comparison, too...a 1h PB at 15:00 GMT
Moved a bit more than it's size then came right on back
Btw, hadn't really thought of today's retrace fest as being a "gap close" move yet..interesting..
Note - this chart is not to show a setup(ew, no, wrong place), just the bar.
after having been stopped out on the positions I posted for +250 pips (went down after +550 pips), I entered AUDCAD because of a pinbar. I entered on a break and am now +25 pips in the positive but there is a counter pinbar forming after hitting resistance.
Hey Chris...
until there actually is one, it's all intraday noise. Don't panic
And if one does form, you can always adjust your stops accordingly.
This is my current AUDCAD chart including that TL I posted ages ago and the s/r from it and the reactions we had at it in the meantime (chart remained preeeeeetty valid over the last 2-6 weeks, I like it when they do that - I did add the upper blue box swab just now, but the TL second touch and rejection was all the chart on it's own)
Dunno if anyone remembers. Posted this somewhere in September I think?
Was expecting a much sharper direct followthrough, turns out price took a detour and retraced back to the TL one last time...how very UNUSUAL...NOT! Hehehehe...did the usuall stall-and-fall dance after failing to get back up above it solidly, then proceeded to fill out my chart as planned - just shifted about 4 weeks to the right
So sorry, the arrows weren't obeyed by price, but I did try my best :P
The text and reasoning however remained sound.
To which I say: coolies.
I think I'll just do a star wars...post the trilogy
Basically when I posted Part II we had fulfilled the FE 161.8 target and completed most likely a third (sub-)wave. So I snapped and posted the chart EXACTLY on the turning point. Then price corrected in a fourth => that's the TL retest => then proceeded down in probably a fifth wave, which is the currently ongoing one.
This sorta voids my ABC logic since we seem to be making a whole new waveset => this might not be a correction. This might be a whole new game.
Actually the wavecount is completely irrelevant for the whole chart, the crucial toggles imho were the trendlines. But the wave projection was hit perfectly for the subwave to 2.35, so hey, ya know? At least it did something
Hehehe...Tiki and Mamutot both, proud of you(although you really shouldn't be on the 1h Tiki..)...it's so nice to see when folks that want to learn get to the point where they can see the improvement happening for them and tangibly, too...
I think this calls for a group hug
Let's go get our local teddybear Mr. Trend to join in for the extra bit hugglywugglyness
Thx for taking the time to post this chart. I have been dissapointed lately as in the last two weeks i have not seen one good PA trade on the dailys.
Any idea when the PF forum will accept new members? I need to go to the next level.
I think there were at least a handful. IMHO you shouldn't put the "blame" on being in the PF or not. It might help or speed things along, sure(there's lots of live / direct support and feedback and the new site will take that another step further), but if you ask me you should/could also take the time until then to simply go over the charts with the setups you already have at your disposal and see if you can find the good, the bad and the ugly trades.
Step through 'em, see what would have worked for you (try to step through the chart one by one e.g. without cheating) and what not, try to figure out whether the trade failed because some just do or whether you missed something, etc.
Basically - keep a journal and backtest "quasi live". That's really two of the best things you can do. I know it's really hard to simulate an unknown future environment (I think someone wrote a soft because of that, but hiding partial data and trading the 1990s e.g. is a good trick, too), but the point is to see and chart setups, s/r areas, and so forth.
The more you do (for) yourself, the more you benefit from examples of others. Getting to a higher plateau is a lot simpler from elevated ground on =)
All good things come to an end..but the bad ones seem to take their time..
I'm not one bit in a hurry to buy a weekly bearish bar and crediting this pair with the power to stem the complete monthly BEB(fell 1350 pips so far) into a PB from here on out is optimistic(as in I'd need a reason to think this pair will turn around for GOOD from here on out - I am not looking for a quick scalp). Not impossible, naturally, but I'm not gonna look for excuses to take this one long if it's done a fall in 300+ pip steps and then makes a measly 150 pip bounce off of a trendline that's 12 years long.
If the DAX and DJI stage a staggering rally, then okay. DAX is pretty much at a similiar TL as GBPCHF (what a surprise).
I don't trust either much to either side at the moment. Personally I suspect PB triggering, lots of whoops and noise, then price x hits on the rally and the sell it to hell orders kick back in. Not a trade recommendation to either side, either. Just saying - I got my perspective/plan for this pair.
Btw if you wanna see a bounce / reaction that convinced me to take the bar / next setup long, look no further than USDCAD
(reaction was 2-3 times the last daily ranges instead of half like here)
P.S. Wiz, I don't know if you're still long EURGBP, but if you buy GBPCHF you'll sorta be hedging your EURGBP trade :P
Most of us get that great moment when something clicks and it really alters your trading. This call really taught me that we never know where the market is going and that we shouldn't be too quick to look for a place to exit.
You and your calls
I make mine on the phone! (btw Habeeb's PB failed - price made a new low 2 days later/fell the day after his post - so no holding dilemma ;p The two IBs that came the week after woulda been alright though)
It shows me both how far you can go in just 1-2 years and how you can go from ugly(omg those indicators!) to beautiful(his journal is so pretty now) with the power of salvation that is Jim's Price Action!
Halleluja brother! You have been saved!
Many pips be with you! Amen! ;p
*hands out free icecream*
Habeeb also was the first one to help me with PA and sorta got me hooked. He's mah hero =)
until there actually is one, it's all intraday noise. Don't panic
And if one does form, you can always adjust your stops accordingly.
This is my current AUDCAD chart including that TL I posted ages ago and the s/r from it and the reactions we had at it in the meantime (chart remained preeeeeetty valid over the last 2-6 weeks, I like it when they do that - I did add the upper blue box swab just now, but the TL second touch and rejection was all the chart on it's own)
And it's still got orders placed at that s/r area - price bounced one more time.
Don't know if you TP at the s/r area or are holding or closed out, but this is a pretty good example of where it's tricky to decide ahead of time whether this time is the one time it will go or not after so many tests :P
All good things come to an end..but the bad ones seem to take their time..
I'm not one bit in a hurry to buy a weekly bearish bar and crediting this pair with the power to stem the complete monthly BEB(fell 1350 pips so far) into a PB from here on out is optimistic(as in I'd need a reason to think this pair will turn around for GOOD from here on out - I am not looking for a quick scalp). Not impossible, naturally, but I'm not gonna look for excuses to take this one long if it's done a fall in 300+ pip steps and then makes a measly 150 pip bounce off of a trendline that's 12 years long.
If the DAX and DJI stage a staggering rally, then okay. DAX is pretty much at a similiar TL as GBPCHF (what a surprise).
They(DJI & DAX) both decided to fall instead.
Not so sure about the trendlines anymore, the charts are all screwy and MT4 for TLs is as reliable as fundamental analysis is for precise entries(= not at all), but the main points I felt pertinent to GBPCHF seem to have come through today (massive bearish momentum overpowering the mini-bounce that made the PB - low just was violated by 4 pips).
To be honest - I didn't expect everything to crash down today already...I would have thought a lot more retrace pain was due first and THEN a proper push...huh...oh well, not complaining, still got seeds growing elseplace.
Imho I think that taking your surroundings into account as well helps to gauge what's what better. It does have the risk of overcomplicating - but I guess that what suits my personality :P
Mike would prolly just shrug and say "order cancelled, moving on", I write little essays ;p
Good thing Tiki.
It was a risky pin bar to begin with, but entering on the close or on a retrace with this one would've been super risky.
This is where discretion plays a huge part in PA trading.
You gotta step back and really look at all aspects.
You know moneybags, it's cases like yours that make me happy to see how you've developed over time...I've already mentioned this before I believe, but I just had a birthday, so I'm allowed to be sentimental.
I can still remember back when you first asked about PA and the PF *sniffles* Oh, how much the kid has grown *sniff sniff*
Just so nice to see people watch and learn and grow and go on to do good =)
Those that stick with something and invest time and effort do get good things out of it in turn imho.
OK, I will admit... I jumped in right away on this GBP/USD daily PB a week or so ago... was the Biggest blunder I have made
This is because I am thinking of where I would like the market to go, instead of seeing where it really will go...
There was no excuse... I have been kicking my own butt ever since...
Well, sometimes we have to make big mistakes to learn big lessons.
I made stupid mistakes in the beginning, I made stupid mistakes for a whole week long 2 or now 3 or so weeks ago as well. But they get smaller, less frequent, less damaging...and the "right" things better, more frequent, bigger
It's up to you what you make of it, what you make of yourself and what you take with you from it, Tiki. Perhaps even make a plan / write down some rules, put them in front of your monitor, only allow placing an order if you checked all off, for example.
Something to artificially stall your hyper-active nature :P
confirmed break low and I am in, a break of 228.50 resumes the bulls from my charts
KKK, thanks...well, then we all will just have to push real hard to make it happen! :P
I've got my line drawn a bit higher, I think the playground is all the way up to the 235 area, but ultimately this month is looking verrrrrrrry heavy indeed =)
There a two ok PA-setups I have on my daily charts today.
Both are in the direction of the longer term trend. EURAUD has a pinbar off resistance but it is not a beautiful one
Both setups are backed up by fibonacci levels
What do you guys think?
Chris
I can't see any sort of trend on EURAUD. My history only goes back to August 2003, but from that it appears to be an oscillating pair, not a trending pair.
Current direction for me still is mainly up. Next higher s/r around 1.68. Current s/r it's stuck at is 1.6575, but it seems to want to close above it..
Not a clear situation for me and the PB is too much more like a neutral bar. Open / close too much in the middle(92 / 144 pips).
I don't think the EURxxx pairs(any combination really) are currently that optimal to go short on.
My EURCHF is about to close as a BUOB off of channel support(not buying this pair).
I don't like anything I see anywhere currently, but that's because I'm in a foul mood.
My EURCHF is about to close as a BUOB off of channel support(not buying this pair).
Just wanted to clarify in case it was misunderstood(since you wrote "agree").
Yes it made a BUOB, yes there's a channel / supportish stuff.
But I don't think it will rise much. (If it does and it makes a bearish setup - then I'll take a look again)
I think it will eventually lose that channel. I'm very pessimistic about anything carryish at the moment and EURGBP is pushing it's luck. The tide will eventually turn again I suspect. Currently not much to go on more than a feeling, but hey, everyone gets a guess
Just wanted to clarify in case it was misunderstood(since you wrote "agree").
Yes it made a BUOB, yes there's a channel / supportish stuff.
But I don't think it will rise much. (If it does and it makes a bearish setup - then I'll take a look again)
I think it will eventually lose that channel. I'm very pessimistic about anything carryish at the moment and EURGBP is pushing it's luck. The tide will eventually turn again I suspect. Currently not much to go on more than a feeling, but hey, everyone gets a guess
EURCHF is about to violate the BUOB's low. If it goes below it it's a goner. This is why it's a good idea to use "on break" orders if unsure. I personally wouldn't have placed a buy for the above reasons.
----
Just wanted to post an update on USDJPY along the lines of "it pays to hold and be bold sometimes".
Still in the shorts from the original 117.xx BEOB. I made the trade my birthday present to myself and it worked out really well =)
I'm happy as it was to prove to myself I could trade a swing(and my own plans - which I've had trouble with in the past) properly.
Took a bit of profit from some of the lower entries, but really waiting to see whether the long term TL goes or not.
Wait a minute Seeking.....
Are you telling me you're still short on the UJ from 117.XX till now?
So you've made like 900 pips on that trade (aside from some earlier profit taking). That's f*&^$n awesome!
Great trade and impressive patience.
Nicely done.
Still short from 117.xx, also still short on some of the others as you can see. It was all part of a bigger plan as discussed in my journal.
Jumped out of EURAUD far too soon yesterday(mentioned in my journal, too, btw, hidden between all those charts ;p), that'd be well above 1000 pips now as well
Didn't think it'd surpass 1.7 so soon. Oh well, live and learn.
Warper really blew my fuse(the things I have to read 20 minutes after waking up) and I don't like myself for being so ugly to anyone - and I have never had to be mean or insulting to anyone either here or in the PF.
But after being told twice that I lie and can't trade larger timeframes worth poop I thought I was allowed an outburst.
It's still something I have to work on real hard - detachment and simply ignoring all those people with their head up somewhere dark and lonely.
--
If you can't recognize what is in front of you, then either open your eyes or look inside of yourself for the reason you can't see even with eyes wide open.
I really don't like being an ass. And I'd rather never see myself get so stupid myself as to stoop to those levels, but about the worst thing someone can do to me is to tell me "who I am" / that I am someone I am not / that I lie - when it is my fiercest conviction that I am only trying to help people with what I do and say and mean it.
All fuses blow and system sorta shuts down at that point. You go out of your way to try and show people some help and they go "nah you suck, you can't even interpret your own advice, I understood it better than you so now I can tell you what you really meant and why you can't say what you are saying now, hah".
Call me a drama queen.
But hey.
It's a good thing - I've already started cutting subscriptions of other threads than this one and am focussing more than ever on my plans for my corner of the new PF/site.
I'll give my best to ensure that people that want to learn and like a friendly and communicative environment will get the best one on the planet(including this thread) - and those that thrive on conflict and knowing things better get all of the rest of FF to play in.
I'll just move on.
Sorry for the rant, but the the things put forth by some people at times just completely blows my mind.
I'm gonna go write a "will chart for hugs" signpost now.
SL, Don't worry about it man. There will always be people out there that want to bring you down. The reason they do that is because they are jealous. Your pip totals are awesome indeed. I personally have not been able to reach those levels yet. I still have a long way to go. I too am in the beginning stages of trying to see the bigger swings (500-1000 pip moves) and having the courage to stay in them long term. I would be interested in learning more about how you managed your emotions and your stops on the USD/JPY trade. I too saw this 118.00 area as the best spot to sell but didn't stay in the trade nearly long enough. Your an inspiration to all of us. Don't stop posting. Take care All.
Thanks Wall Street.
There's not that much to it, I just had a plan and a belief and stuck to it, come hell or high water(I was of course doubtful often and took it out on my journal and basically any news release even remotely related to indices or UJ).
The original 117 stops I didn't move past break even until the second 115 swing started breaking down I think..the other stuff I just moved risk free once we were 300 pips or so further away. It's been a while.
Here's an example I bailed out of for no reason and way too early but which would have been just as excellent - I hope someone takes these type of trades (was in the second 1.17xx IB, left it for under 200 pips because I watched the chart and observed low timeframes too much) - it's also an update to the example chart I posted. Also a good example of how allowing winners to run in a trending market really can pay off:
Also mention of the 128xx level on the DJI futures which we hit today.
I admit - we took a detour! We made a second top! But hey, I blame the perma bulls.
Also I may have been sorta right about EURCHF and GBPCHF dying off a bit, but some of the others are being a bit stubborn ;p
I hope I get more humble over time :P
Anyway. Much bigger props go to Clusterwise though who started that thread and used Elliot Waves to aim for the same 109 and 101.7 area I've looked for. http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...2&postcount=48
Now THAT is persistance!
We took 8 weeks and quite some yank and tank to get to the next step, now I wonder what that monthly TL is going to do to us :P
Just wanted to "follow up" since it's always nice to see how far ahead you can actually chart stuff or not :P
Congratulation to your good work. It looks like if you have read the post I have sent to you about the Stoptechnik. Did you?
It looks like you did, because so I am also very long in my trades.
Kind Regards Erkro
Hi Erkro.
I think I looked at it briefly, but didn't read it in detail. I did all the planning and stop managing basically based on my "belief" of what I expected to come.
Instead of the fear based "mustn't lose a single pip" attitude one has when starting to trade I chose to go the "minimize exposure and leave as much leeway as possible" route. Basically I just moved stops to break even once price had moved out far enough and then looked for new entries without having to worry about how many pips it would cost me on a bounce.
This was "risky" as in I risked what open profit I had, but I had a firm belief of where price was headed and how and I chose to take it and trade it.
Also I was only risking open profit => the market's money. It still cost a "shot" and spread of course, but as price progressed further out stops got moved up ever so slightly again and things moved on.
It's a completely different style compared to the "bar hugging" I used to do, but I never would do it / have done it without having a concrete outline and plan for the weeks ahead(target areas and s/r). It was also of the utmost importance that I felt I knew what I was doing.
Had I had doubts or not "felt" it then I would have screwed up the trade many times along the way. I still made a lot of bad mini-addon attempts during some periods of the retrace, but since their risk sizes were so tiny they didn't matter much. And those addons that stuck in turn grew to a few hundred pips and compensated.
Had I just used the daily IBs things would have been perfect.
You know, it's ironic. I am seeing more and more how the right timing will make DAILY MORE ATTRACTIVE THAN SMALLER TIMEFRAMES, simply because of it being pretty reliable and you just can see where you are more clearly. Things are more "compressed" whereas the lower TF(1h - 4h) are pretty noisy.
And as you can see from the last 2-3 trade chart examples I posted the last 2-3 weeks and how they progressed - daily is just fine for making insane amounts of % if you just manage the trades properly. And perhaps use one or two chances to add to the trade. But even if not - it will grow if you LET IT.
I'm still learning
As for stop management techniques, I'm currently toying with some ideas for stop management myself. If it turns out feasible I'm going to expand on it, check different timeframes about it and do some videos / tests on it. But I'm going to keep it PF exclusive since I'll be building it on something used in there. Avid journal readers already know :P
It might end up being a bogus idea however. I'm considering it for those trades where I have no idea whatsoever what is going to happen next and desperately need a mechanical element to help me out.
Otherwise I still favor discretion a lot...which sort of screws up reliability, but I'm just not built for very mechanical in-and-outs I think :P
I like to improvise and be creative too much :P
Thanks for the input and material though Erkro, I appreciate it.
I currently have 2-3 things like your material I am keeping on the side for when I have some leisure time to go over.
It's sort of an ever growing "to do" list :P
I just feel it'd be unfair to Jim's stuff and my own progress if I continued to try and do 50 things at once and I am constantly at risk of that :P
Currently trying to constrict and focus myself more and perfect that what I have, because I know there's Gold in them thar hills.
Once I feel that's settled in more, I will look to expand on it and see what other useful stuff I can add. There's so much out there.
Anyway. Thanks again and I hope you're doing well on that EJ, too.
Just don't forget there's a sell button for it, too!
Thank you! Do any of you know when the pf will be open again, I wan't in !!
It might take a bit I think.
Jim is basically doing everything at once and could probably use 25 hours in a day :P
Current considerations are to at least leave the first month of the new site to existing members for now to get settled in and iron out bugs, improve what's there, port over the material, structure new sections, get things running, etc pp.
I think he's absolutely right about making sure everything is polished and at least settled in before we open the gates, since I believe everyone wants to make it the best thing possible.
It might be early 2008 before subs are reopened(since the site opens for current subscribers around December and a month at least is planned for testing), but I really can't say.
I think it's going to be an adventure we will have to take step by step.
There are going to be tons of new features and those take a bit of getting used to.
I think whatever Jim does he wants to do it the best way possible as he has stated many times before and that takes a bit of time.
Please be patient with us
Considering it's Thanksgiving I'd like to give thanks for all that Jim and the other people of the PF done for me and my trading.
It's been over a year since I joined FF and started perusing various things and threads and met people that eventually got me set on the right track with price action.
Without them I would probably still be in total desperation and never have quit system hopping, blowing money and hope into the vast black broker hole :P
So I give thanks and I hope I get to see many more years with these kind and experienced people.
Personally I think everyone is trying to salvage a broken trade on a pair that is currently moving downwards.(See my last post about the last bullish setup about this pair in turn. Nothing has changed, we just made another lower low.)
Maybe it'd help anxiety levels to only look at the charts once every 24 hours - lord knows that would have saved me from a lot of stupidity myself very often.
As for the ponderings of intervention:
Don't manually intervene with a trade that you're sposed to leave up to the market to decide!
99% of the trades I close out 10% from their stop losses do something completely unexpected!
Okay, I lie, but seriously, the only thing worse than admitting defeat is to admit it when it turns out it really wasn't :P
Don't meddle in the affairs of market after having analysed, decided and placed the ORDERs. At least not randomly in between things.
Late for bed, stupid FX addiction and 24/5 market :P
N8
__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.
Last edited by SeekingLight, Nov 26, 2007 7:14pm
Reason: took out the high and mighty bit ;p
The eurchf trades in function of how the euro and swissy pairs function. Why not trade the real major thing?
IMHO EURUSD is basically a way to trade and gauge the USD whereas USDCHF is, like USDJPY, a carry core and can be skewed(albeit less harshly than USDJPY) by "borrowing" for the carry trade. The resulting "difference" to the corresponding majors/pairs shows up in the crosses => EURCHF, GBPCHF, AUDCHF..
Yield differential and borrowing (USDCHF) vs more direct trade basket weight / USD equivalent(EURUSD) and a carry/yield generating trade(EURCHF) in turn.
I hope I'll see (as in be awake and at the screen for) 1.6490-1.6550.
You know what's funny? Looking at EURCHF I got pretty good confidence about what will likely happen there, looking at the DJI and S&P I get so scared..it's really odd - especially since they're basically making identical moves
Which way now, SL? .....
It looks that DOW could use that A/gravity device....
.
I think this should be the DOW's song, even though it's lately done a bit much of the Phoenix dance.
(Wanted to link "When the dying calls" but the stupid internet has no video for that..)
All these silly willy headlines keep confusing people when really everyone knows the jig is up :P
That's because I don't use the phone and make calls, I go to visit price in person and Mr Trend can't afford a phone yet, as all his money goes towards flashy outfits and face paint (white leather zombie one day, deep bling bling tan Mistah the next).
The daily PB from last Friday still remains problematic and iffy... I am still hanging on to it... and could even only manage to move my stop up slightly to just below the DBLHC...
I was dumbfounded... again... I just don't get it....
This is the difficulty coping with "accepting that it really is simple" bit. After so many people talk about Bloomberg, news, indicators and 50 other factors, we're led to believe "it can't be this simple". Well, it is.
What's really incredibly difficult is coping with it and being able to bounce and change direction as swiftly as the market can(on the lower timeframes).
Sure hope you kept that EURCHF, else no champagne for you tonight! ;p
P.S. I second the Decaf suggestion :P Either that or tell Mr. Trend to stop pouring liquid speed into your breakfast cereal
In reality though I am feeling a disappointed that you have setup the James16 group website and now charge a fee for what was once free.
It still is. This thread is and will remain public.
Quote:
I feel the FF community has been weakened by this precedent and it is a sad day when access to knowledge is bought and sold like a commodity.
I would rather say this thread is one of the exceptions to a large part of the FF community - decency, help, encouragement.
Have you seen some of the rest of FF?
Quote:
charging a fee for access to that knowledge?
IMHO you pay for getting support and service from people who are around to help you every day, not for the information.
Information is passive - that doesn't need to be paid(well some does, but I meant as in you can't pay information - that's an abstract idea). People actually listening to you, spending time on you, giving you personalized advice - doesn't that deserve something in turn?
Going by this post you can't have been inside the PF before
(If there's a misunderstanding as in that you thought that this thread is going to disappear / discontinue / be replaced by some paysite then some of the replies might be a bit off point. They're still true The PF is just different..)
Either way - no worries, this thread will stay and will continue to be updated by member contributions, discussions, etc =)
And as Jim's post just before indicated - he might even be around himself in the FREE chat room to talk with the serious and aspiring people from this very thread =)
So things will only get more and more interesting =)
__________________
Trust price. Know yourself.
Last edited by SeekingLight, Dec 3, 2007 6:53am
Reason: went from "most" to "some" :p
I am doing as J16 has always said. You can be quite profitable just trading daily Pin Bars.
It wasn?t until I came across J16 post about trading just daily PB?s that and that alone could make you wealthy. I stopped trading all kinds of PA and just worked on PB?s until I finally proved I could trade PB?s successfully for three months in a row and archive 5% return.
This month I added another zero by trading to the end of my account.
This is a message for the members of the PF. The old PF is quite dead currently, did anyone already get his login/password settings for the new one?
Thx
Oi, my journal is still zombiestaggering along just fine! :P
I expect there'll be some last minute tinkering and we'll get to move in soon enough =)
Not like the market is throwing around grand events to discuss right now this Monday :P
"Promotional agendas tend to compromise the integrity of forum discussions and are therefore not permitted.* If you make money by servicing Forex traders in any way, shape, or form, you are NOT permitted to post in the forums unless you have prior approval.
Merlin knows and actually suggested both thread and more to Jim initially if I remember the first few posts correctly.
My fear is that PA is so subjective that only an mature already accomplished trader with intuition can use it.
That's what I thought originally, too.
Later on I realized I was simply trying to see setups everywhere and taking anything anywhere. It took me a while to realize that just because a bar looks like something mentioned here doesn't make it a good setup.
I think what is crucial is figuring out what factors contribute to setups that worked out and then looking for them in the here and now.
Support and resistance plays a big role imho.
That and not forcing setups onto charts when things aren't as crystal clear as they can get / most ideal. If I had a pip for every neutral bar that's been called a pin bar or every traffic clustered PB or every "4h IB" etc pp...
Quote:
I am wondering if i should just keep fumbling around hoping some day it will come together or is there another way to make PA more mechanical and less subjective?
Well you won't get good at anything (sports, art, music, anything in life) if you throw in the towel after a short while already :P
The most detrimental thing for me was to keep looking, trying, stopping, moving on, repeating the same system hopping over and again. Leads nowhere.
Seeking Light? Me too Could u enlighten me on the traffic clustered PinBars..Thanx
Thanks Mike.
Also the two daily PBs on EURUSD. Price simply thrashed sideways and you got pin, counter pin. Who are you going to believe?
All price did was keep beating both sides to see which gave first...it wasn't very clear behavior imho...very often you will get 5-6 bars next to each other(as in horizontally, same price levels like) and one might end up a PB - that's sideways traffic, and that's a traffic clustered PB.
Some can work, some fail, but what's for sure is that they're not exactly ideal and superbly reliable.
I think it was mentioned before - ideally the PB isn't too much obscured by the prior bar and has a very "high" open/close in the upper third to emphasize the strong rejection of the low.
Basically it was a 1h PB, turned into a 4h PB and then the daily bar together with the day before formed a 2 day PB. The 4h one looked nicest though - yet I didn't take it due to all the fearmongering inspired by the monthly PB...even though I'd suspected there was a good chance for it to go at least a little bit..too much overthinking = no good.
well, the beat goes on still - not a 1000 on each but surely close...
here is the proof that money can be made using the stuff in here - sorry for not posting much lately, i am away from homw for a month now - miss my woman.
Well,... stopped 12ps short of 1.66...
Let's see if we can push it down to and reverse at 1.6430...
I'd rather see a merciless smashdown into the depths of hell *devil*
Given the fierceness of the last 2 London open burnouts on the CHF pairs I feel something is up...
2.25 GBPCHF and 1.6 EURCHF eventually would be nice :P
But I have no idea if without another gasp in the stock market that's doable..either way, I'd like to move past 1.6430 which I know you're looking to buy buy buy and on down down down ;p
dj is testing ppz again. It will be interesting to see what market will do next week if feds decide to cut rates by .50 again. Somehow, I don't think we'll shoot through the roof this time around if they cut....
What's completely screwed up is that GU GC GJ is dying nonetheless - even with stocks rallying their butts off.
Seeking, One of the main reasons in my opinion for the recent pound weakness is a possible change in monetary policy could be coming. The BOE has become more dovish in recent months. I know that is more of a fundies outlook at it but big money follows monetary policy decisions. Just my 2 cents.......
Yea, I was wondering something along those lines, but nobody knows before it's released, no?
Well I expected the moves(wrote such in Sunday night's FXNotes summary for the week ahead), I'm just amazed at the fierceness and the utter disregard for levels I had expected to put up a fight on the way...
Then again I should read what I write more closely...I was expecting an impulsive/third wave :P
Quote:
Originally Posted by from_my_fxnotes
this reeks of at least a 1-2-3 move downwards, with us being in the 3 now.
Even the weak target is already 2.0335, [..top secret words..]. Below this is roughly 2.0030.
We basically covered almost 60+% of the move this morning alone! Scary :P
And if we take what we got on 1h / 4h as HNS then 2.0215ish should be the target of that in turn..
It smells like a lot of people are very, very scared. There's a sense of change in the air...almost like everyone is covering their butts and running for it :P
Cascading prices...snowballs rolling...question is what's gonna happen the next 2 days
Yea...but this EURGBP thing has been on since November, so I think someone was expecting a shift for a month now..and today/yesterday we just entered into the next impulse..and you can see the effects :P
So, about the fear, indices and panic stuff - is Asia gonna love or hate the JPY, any smart guesses by anyone? :P
I know what I'd like to see happen across the board..but whether St. Nikolaus (6th tomorrow) will put many pips in my shoe or not, that I don't know yet..
We'll have to wait and see.... it's only few hours away...
oil got cheaper today, dji i hovering around resistance.
my sell trigger is some 120ps higher from current price (13560/80)....I was hoping 300+ rally till midday and retrace, but it appears investors are betting on rate cuts and stock market recovery....:surprised
As we rapidly getting closer to Christmas, liquidity should dry out, so I expect wild swings....
Pah, it ended superstrong...yet I don't think it should change anything about USD bullishness(exception=USDCAD).
Already merrily selling Oil to hell on demo, yes
I'd like to see commodities give back quite a bit now, especially Gold and Silver as the USD gains :P
Stocks are just not quitting..annoying and silly.
Just like me and my cable adventure! (closed too soon)
Okay well since I'm nerve wrecked and exhausted completely I am going to go retreat now and hope the charts keep telling the truth, no matter what that stupid stock market says.
I'm waiting to see price behavior at either 1.47 or at the possible neckline right here. Well not neckline necessarily, I don't like HNS that much :P
But it's support either way.
Raczekfx, it's a 2 bar PB here and a 4h PB on USDCHF if that helps? :P
Not sure how this will all end up..shame we already were so low on the pairs, no way to make good daily PBs now.
Tiki, since you asked about UJ, I just had this area marked as a place that might "clog" or pause things..another 200 pips and there's another spot..no great bearish setup yet, but I still believe we've got to make one last new low eventually..
Will see.
It's just something I believe, but I got to leave the actual doing something to the chart :P
I understand how you see where things can go lower... I have ideas on that too... But I also see where it could go higher.... but you are very strong in your thoughts about price coming down... I am missing something... some cog in the gear somewhere... or again... I missed class on one of those important days !!!!
usd jpy ????????
Hey SL and Tiki..... on the chart ... is that a 5-3 wave ? .... it's a 4h view ... if there is short PA setup i tempted taking it, atleast for a short-term, ... onestly the divergence and 150 ema is encouraging me but i'll wait for PA obviously.
Onestly it's the first time that i'm trying to read a chart in SL style .
What do you think?
Yes about UJ.
I think the current move up looks more like a 5 count itself, which is worrying.
Even if it were an ABC the c would be way, way, way too short yet. Minimum would be .618 x size of A = C. As far as I know at least.
I would have asked Traex about all this, but he seems to have gone on hiatus.
As it is there's a weekly bullish outside bar and it's triggered.
Price is sitting just few points away from my favored confluence; weekly ppz, 50/61 and TL.....
What PA we'll get out of this, how will affect our jpy and $?... we'll find out soon enough....
.
p.s. How do you think, this will affect the us stock market SL?... Not sure about others, but I can't see champagne flowing..
Yea it's fun isn't it "here, let me make business for you, I'm very good at it, just check my resume" ;p
Well I don't know. I got the same 1500ish area, too, and I got truckloads of stuff for USDJPY etc pp, but until some decent PA forms so far all attempts at shorts even with pins have just been overruled. There needs to be an "x element" to make this thing go "eeeeek" again. We'll see soon enough.
Like I said, I can't see it on a moon shot yet, but that might be me being brainwashed by everyone else, in disregard of the charts.
Wiz, you are so far over the top going by those two posts, I doubt you can still see earth.
I'm starting to get seriously worried about that stuff. (Margin maxing and sleep shifts and tripled size 1h trades after being stopped..) I don't think it's a good way to stay sane in the long run.
haven't posted anything last week since I was away from home but I've just caught up reading the thread.
Feedback is appreciated.
Chris
Just don't go all out a day before one of the bigger announcements when the entries for the "good" / early setups were a few hundred pips lower 2-3 bars ago
GJ's IB from Thursday could turn into the trade of the week/month if tomorrow's reaction remains consistent(blind, rabid stock and carry buying like there is nothing else).
Hey,
have been burnt today after the interest rate statement. -250 pips for me.
Argh, dude, I TOLD YOU the other night don't overdo it..this was bound to happen..the only safe entries were a lot lower and even those would now show either near zero or red..FOMC is a dangerous animal and this carry liquidation after the massive squeezes up was very possible indeed...
You shouldn't have held/entered at the chart highs
Quote:
I somehow think I have to make up for this loss but this is dangerous thought because it makes one enter setups that are worse than the ones a person would normally take.
Exactly!
The USDCHF stuff/bars is/are STILL all sideways crap if you ask me, as were all the ones before it the last 7 trading days/2 weeks.
As for the why, it's already been written. Expectations are priced in and when met instead of exceeded, a lot of people press "close", that drives price and yet more do it and it gets out of hand. That's the guess I'd venture, too.
As seen "over in my journal" back then, this pretty much was the beginning of the end of the rise from that stubby daily PB..we did get a rather super nasty spike on that intervention back up to just about the same level once, now we're at 1.4560 again..
And this is another nice s/r flip + PB..woke up one hour too late today because I thought hey, nothing all week, won't hurt to get 8 hours again..and this forms&triggers without me
Hehehe..still, it's alright..
Tiki...you shouldn't be on 1h...stop trading 1h....else I'm gonna go secretly hire the same lightning assassin that's rumoured to have struck wiz ;p
When I see a bearish EURCAD I am thinking cool, the EUR will drop faster than the USDCAD will rise, I know where to buy my dollars.
Settling for only the difference in speed on the cross instead right now seems a bit "meh".
Considering the cross has already shot out tons of pips both ways, it feels a bit sucked dry..probably explains the tearjerk movements.
Other times it can be a good leveraged way of trading one of the two pairs the cross mainly represents(EURCAD => USDCAD, EURAUD => AUDUSD imho)..
Totally agree with raczekfx's s/r zone, even if my line is 50 pips different - that's nothing on this one and I think it's a 50-70 pip big zone anyhow.
Just rambling, there's really not much to say as I can't see anything too terrific to trade right now..last week anyhow =)
thanks for your answers. I am gonna play this bar as an inside bar.
CADJPY:
TBH with the trend and off 61 and 76 fib
NZDCAD:
big pinbar off resistance, two EMAs and with the longer term downtrend. Unfortunately my chart only goes back so far and I would like to have more data but the setup looks good to me.
Chris
Hey Chris. I don't see any TBH on CADJPY? You can use arrows to highlight stuff under Insert/Arrows in MT4 to point out what/where you mean when posting charts
As for not having enough data, I would feel uncomfortable trading something I am not sure I have all the important levels / areas of, but maybe that's just my fragile psyche :P
I just wanted to say this tendency to "indicatorize" even PA imho stunts growth. It just keeps you reliant on other things, as you don't pick out stuff via eye or examine your charts closely, since your visual recognition matrix limits it's responses to the pretty smiley faces and icons instead of the bars.
That way you won't learn the behavior and recognition of price; you will simply stay enslaved to something other than yourself to tell you how to interpret what you are seeing.
Well but I posted the two EURUSD 4h PBs a while ago. And there was also a daily IB(shoulder levels/ s/r and nice round number). That's really all you need - one entry, then you let it run.
And the EURCAD IB that helped make the weekly IB / 2 bar PB, well, dunno. I just was too focussed on USD to notice I guess.
And there really wasn't anything else very sexy. Most of my focus currently is on maintaining my PF journal to show stuff, making videos, thinking about structure/ideas for more videos and material/my section and so forth..and the market just is 80% on holiday it feels like..erratic bursts.
ANother DBHLC on EURCAD, 4 hour. Look to sell break of 1.4410. Target 1.4260, SL 1.4502.
Not sure if this is the right way to set Stop ?? 92 pip. Risk too much ?
Putting aside risk for a moment, I'd say you want to have DBHLC setups at the end of upswings(even better if the pair is in a downtrend) as a reversal OR as confirmation as the end of a retrace after a bigger bearish setup. Basically, anything except at the very low / bottom of a swing/chart...
Also support/resistance should be just ABOVE it, causing the DBHLC to form in the first place, not just below/at it which is imho what 1.4444 has(support, look to the left on 4h, highs).
nice pb on wheat... broken ppz, now testing it from another side..
Note the only slightly skewed "leg parity" of the bar after the PB - almost identical length as the left bar before the PB - then the bar closes and a counter-reaction..
This looks to be a BEOVB on the USDCAD weekly, if it closes as such this week I will look to get short on this pair sometime next week (waiting for retracement to get a good entry).
Any thoughts?
For a bearish OUTSIDE bar price has to completely engulf/encompass the prior bar, the current bar's high is lower than last week's high.
This was one for patient people. Wiz's favorite "retrace bus" back to the pin's lows occured, but we actually tested that area twice/for two weeks, before we finally made a second mini pin in traffic and gave up completely.
The TL / channel low had some buy orders left that once exhausted gave another rally for bears to sell into and on a second retest/loss of the channel triggered new sell stops, making us just blow lower towards the next marked projection / s/r area.
Could have been one sweet trade with a lot of spare time for the trader.
What was critical about this top PB was: It was big enough(375 pips), the open and close were level, and, imho one of the most important things, the bar before it was a clean, completely fragile BUB without any s/r in sight for the first 100-200 pips => had enough space to build momentum on break.
This is the one I was talking about.
Entered on green line with SL at Red line.
Thanks,
TradeStar
Even with me not being Mike, I just wanted to murmur quietly to myself:
As a general rule I wouldn't even consider a trendline broken until price has closed outside of it (and even then in the next bar moved on as well perhaps).
"Piercing" a trendline extremely common(and I've seen a few close outside on one daily bar only to make the next day close right back above, hence the mention of moving on before).
Ideally price "loses" the TL and either fiercely moves on or "retests" and "confirms" the TL as broken with another bearish setup at the TL.
(There are tons of examples around. Some were also posted here I think and it's a reoccuring thing in my journal)
Another problem is which points to view as really "valid" for originating and connecting trendlines, as there are some people that'd advocate only allowing points that stand out, i.e. have at least 1 or 2 "neighbors" to each side with lower/higher highs/lows. Haven't read too much about it, but it was one of the discussion points in the DeMark/Mouteki threads and I also have read about/from someone else who has found his own salvation in TLs using that logic.
I think another thing about trend lines, and this is something I know I still do and catch myself doing time after time... is just connecting a line to two points... that does not make it a trend line... when you can connect three points... then perhaps it is a trend line..
You can join two points with a line anytime... and I have been guilty of that... even just today !!! And the most likely time you may find yourself doing that is right when the bar... or time frame closes...
Dunno imho (and according to the wave principle) it's fine to connect two points as obviously the third interconnecting point has to come from somewhere..again the question is which points to connect(again, neighbors and real "points" etc) and why as opposed to randomly and what you use the TL for etc.
This is a chart from me (I seriously had metatraders look like this, I am not joking and this isn't the worst one) less than 2 years ago. (If you are prone to epilepsy, do not look)
Now here I am, drawing and posting (almost *wink*) legible charts, turning profit, showing others how to do the same and feeling like I actually know what the market is doing most of the time(and wondering how on earth I got access to the drugs that made me do all that stuff 2 years ago).
If you stick with it and put the time in, you will get somewhere.
Shame you jumped ship just before the real fun started :P
Wanted to post an update to the USDJPY chart I posted a while back..
The retrace back to 114.xx was a bit tricky, but nevertheless I feel with a bit of caution and management it woulda done alright..
I find it helps to decide on a direction and stick with that..eliminates a lot of whiplash that way =)
Keeping in mind this UJ example chart is simply ONLY the setups as if there were no such thing as s/r etc...just to illustrate what Jim once wrote - even the setups alone can be an eye opener.
P.S. Just seeing that I skipped a TBH/IB before that windup area. Probably because I don't trade those "top of the move" entries really, I find them far too dangerous / whiplashy most of the time. I want to be in BEFORE the real move starts, not after it's already gone a few hundred pips..
Well, the last 6 months whenever I was bullish JPY you were selling the crap out of it secretly while I wasn't looking, so I just assumed you'd do that again this time
This is a great group and I really appreciate all the posts you guys (and ladies) make.
Hi Seeking - you're appreciated especially, long time lurker here and thought I'd post a pic.
Thanks fuzzle...fact is, if what I posted over the months/years(...aaaand now I feel old again) has helped anyone become a better trade than they were or shown them what's possible, then it's already all worth it(all the effort that goes into the charting and posting I mean).
But I have to admit, often it feels I really do post most of my posts in order to educate myself(I've often written that I am mostly addressing myself with what I write)..sometimes feels like unless I keep telling and showing me how it's done I might forget..so again, I can only recommend to everyone to keep a journal, be it for recording your trades in full detail or simply to arrange your thoughts, ideas and setups..
I guess it also means that there's got to be some sense in it all, since I couldn't recognize and address a lot of issues and problems if they hadn't been inside myself as well..
I still sit here day in and day out reading all of the posts in this thread and one glaring point keeps popping its head up. Why is everyone so adament about picking "targets" and exiting their trades at this predisposed point. If there is one thing we all should have learned by now, the market will do whatever is necessary in order to confuse the majority. I personally think it a might bit arrogant to think we can just sit back and pick a point on a chart and say , thats it, that is the destination.
Well yes and no. First off let me say the worst thing you can do to your trading is use trailing stops. Yes, there are some fellas with a big following that advocate and love them(because it requires 0 thought), but I think that a fixed size trailing stop is rubbish. Are all daily/4h/1h bars the same size? No? Then why on earth have a fixed size stop. Just doesn't make sense.
Now, targets and arrogance. I would approach it the other way around. I get a HNS with a 3000 pip projection, I am not going to exit the trade after 200 pips.
Or I looked at UJ back when and I thought "well, this really has to come down to the TL area around 108-9, it's not just gonna turn around in mid air" => trade towards your target. And so on.
A lot of times I will generate "dream targets" far away, project big price targets etc as an excuse to STAY IN.
I feel this allows me to use targets exactly the other way around. Of course even with dreamy prices it can happen that price STILL exceeds those..but hey, at some point it becomes a bit irrelevant whether it's 11x r/r or 13x r/r you know? :P
Also with a far away price target you can feel confident in adding to the positions during travel as "you just aren't there yet".
Just wanted to add an alternative view to this.
And before anyone asks how to get those far away prices - toggle your chart to weekly, start blank and draw only the really big s/r and TLs, use price projections and be creative. That usually does it for me ;p
Over time I'll be doing more and more videos on all that stuff for the PF.
Quote:
however, when I simply leave the trade alone until the market tells me that the trend is over I will most always end up with more pips that I otherwise would have.
Depending on the trade this is very true. My nightmare on this was Gold, but it wasn't that I had a target, but that I reacted emotionally and broke my own plan one Monday. I shall refer to my signature in this regard :P
i pay attention whenever you post here... i even keep most of your posted charts :
I'm honored...I still don't think all my charts are as perfect as they should/could be, but at least there's some improvement over time.
One thing that always gets me is that whenever I finish a chart and post it I look at it and go "oh no, look there, you forgot this..and that" etc...I'm very hard on myself..
--
Btw, when I say "x or y IS bad/rubbish" it always means "in my personal opinion which could be total nonsense in turn, I find that...".
I said the thing about trailing stops for a reason, but that reason comes from my personal experience with them and my own reasoning and isn't an objective criteria..
I still believe it though
I tend to trail with meaningful points along the way and it works very well for me
I was referring to those automated xx pips trailing stops brokers supply, like 50 / 100 / 200 pips trailing stop once price moves out.
Manually trailing stop for good reason is a normal and sound practice, random pip size autotrailers aren't. That was basically what I was trying to say.
Hope the picture is posted as well. If not I am quoting post 3595. How do you play these inside bars. The thing is, after these small IB there often come BUOB or BEOB that fake you out very often. Like in this example for instance if you get in long on the break you would have been faked out by just a few pips. Or do you enter within a distance of x pips or would you just enter this bar on the short side.
Look back a couple of posts where I showed the GBPUSD weekly summary.
It's essentially the same thing. After the doji/PB the direction / direction to trade in is down, even if price comes back once. It's very discretionary however and you need to have an "idea" of why this is happening and why you would only trade one side.
Another thing is what I constantly repeat - I don't like buying the tops or selling the bottoms of charts unless I have a very very good reason to.
As for things one can look for: the IB should preferably be on s/r => a real togglepoint.
It shouldn't be surrounded in traffic and noise. It shouldn't be in ranging.
Etc.
There's also Jim's sideway's "Pyramid" if you remember..there were a handful examples of that, basically a sideway "boxing in" of price, IB inside IB..
Same story as with all setups really..IBs can be very tricky, but don't have to be..
Sometimes I use the bar next to it or an s/r break as trigger, sometimes just the IB, sometimes I look to the 4h instead...discretion is the word.
It all depends on what where when how and how it fits into my current plan for the market and where I think / want it to go.
Since I dont get the CADJPY pair on my charts, how much higher did price go from yesterday's high?
How many pips away from the high did you guys place your entries?
CJ PB high was 110.97 on my feed.
From my journal:
"Got suckered out of CADJPY at 111.10 - exactly the spike high = my stop.
Very annoying, especially since I considered putting the stop at 112 above the s/r zone instead but then thought it wasteful. Instead I am now watching it trade 109 levels again after the touch-and-go."
I was short and planning to stay short...yet got spiked out on this pair..GJ and EJ and UJ all behaved...c'est la vie.
Trading yen can be very profitable but you need to be aware of what equities are doing...., (at least I watch them...)
In many instances when they dive south, yen will strengthen vice versa.
Charts below are one of the reason why your pin failed....
What he's trying to say is that the DJI and futures only had a miniscule inside bar that broke down today while the JPY all displayed big big pins...this was one of the main reasons I didn't trust any of this, alongside with some personal convictions about the state of "mind" the market is in and how the whole movement "feels".
I'm getting esoteric, so suffice to say it's all not easy, but it WILL come in time.(sounding a bit arrogant and know it all here and I definitely am still wrong an infinite amount of times...I just try not to be hurt by what I do when I am and take advantage of when I am right..that's really all there is to trading, is there not? Humility, where are you..)
Personally I am getting scared that I am starting to already forget the clueless panicky days slowly and how it felt and what the biggest problems were day to day for me..I need that memory for teaching..so I will have to hurry in addressing it ASAP.
I sure hope they never do return and that I am well underway by now..I can still feel the abyss close by..I wonder if it will go away eventually.
I still blame raczekfx, he's only posting the charts to distract from his JPY selling!
Hi All,
Just a thought about the pin bar failures.....in my opinion it had more to do with the fact that those pairs are in the middle of severe downtrends driven by much larger timeframes...go check the weekly and monthly charts....
I spent the better half of last night telling a friend that weekly and monthly dictates these pins fail eventually(I lean out a lot further with him since he isn't a forum of thousands who'll end up crucifying me for trying to predict price outcome before time - and I really do not KNOW...I just believe and try to trade my beliefs)...he kept insisting that PA is PA :P
I completely agree again ST =)
I think I've started down the path of a potential swingtrader given the last 3-4 months :P
Yes, the weekly PB and a small secret entry before that
I was very much waiting for a retrace entry back into the move down and that PB was a real gift.
The journal along with all of my other stuff is over on the private forum / now new site which will be open for new subscribers come Tuesday/Wednesday(depending on your timezone I guess) again.
That and around 50 Million other highly interesting, educational and immensely helpful things that take weeks and weeks to digest and apply properly =)
*teaser* ;p
There's a reason I mention this of course.
I've been spending a lot of time helping out here, but as time demands increase my first priority will go towards helping build the new site into the nicest and best place there is for learning both the first steps as well as the finishing touches of forex trading.
It's given me so much and allowed me to break through to the other side, meet so many great individuals and basically changed everything. And I'm going to do my best to give back as much as I can in turn.
I've even tidy'ed up my charting and toned down my post frequency a bit to a surveyable amount! :P
I really can't wait until all the final features are in, it is truly going to be awesome, awesome..
Just wanted to say so that everyone understands when I can't put out the 50 posts a day on FF anymore that there's a good reason for it and it is that I'm still helping people out as much as I can, and not that I am snubbing anyone..obviously I'm going to try and keep things going here as well, as I have been, but the focus is clear.
Even if we can't tell for sure is the cross is in an uptrend or downtrend you really have to hold me tight... to prevent me from taking shorts...
Broken BEOVB on weekly and retrace to PPZ and 50fib.., add PB to the mix and this is as conservative as it can get for me...
... same thing on the monthly chart..
We get beautiful Beovb, and then pullback to 50, ppz... and Booom
This pretty much says it all. I was wondering whether a retrace was coming to that area a couple of weeks ago when we were about to make a low near 108 or so.
Everything's already there, been posted and explained several times, (this is addressed to both Tiki as well as everyone else still getting thrown off, I'm just gonna be mean and make an example of Tiki because he knows I'm trying to tell him something valuable here and not making fun of him)..the main problem isn't not knowing..it's not allowing yourself to settle down and reduce everything to simply looking at what's already there.
You constantly run around all over the place in a frenzy, posting a bit here, nibbling there, wondering about this, that. This is bad as in that it reduces your focus and disperses too much energy.
You need to STOP, pause, sit down, focus. Think about your questions and what you're wondering about, then remember what you read, what you saw. Then go over all of it again with the questions in your mind, see if you get the answers from what's already known. Peruse the thread, your mind, your memory, link it up. Focus, reapply. Observe the market, not the Forum and once you've gone over everything don't look to others as a first reaction but look to what you read and know already and see whether there isn't an answer inside already that will tell you what's up..
There's only so many things the market does and can do and it does it over and over and over again...you just need to pause long enough in the chase to realize that there's nothing to chase, it's just all already sitting in front of you, you just need to sit up, take notice and start to realize..
Once you feel something's "set" and understood and has a firm foundation, THEN you go back an read more, add another bit, section, lecture, etc..incrementally progress. This is the bit that takes time, but if you don't allow it to take time and move forward slowly by focussing and reducing, it will take forever and not really move much at all.
If you pull a heavy rock with all your strength in one direction all day, it might move an inch towards a given target. If you pull it to another direction every other day it will just end up making a very deep hole in the ground by eroding a lot of sand..
Or - if you pull with all your strength in one direction all day it will go that way; if you nudge it here there and everywhere, it won't budge much at all. There, that also works as focus analogy
I was wanting a few opinions on this trade as I am somewhat new to this thread and PA trading. Their is a decent pinbar on the 4 Hour chart coupled with a beovb on the 1Hr.
Would others here consider taking this trade and if so how would they grade, as an A or B trade and why?
IMHO we're starting to leave a sideway range upwards(monthly IB I believe) and this pair as I've posted before to me is more of a leveraged AUDUSD than anything. I am looking at a possibly weak AUDUSD to come, therefore I would not buy AUD(sell EURAUD) right now, especially on a small timeframe setup like 4h after weekly and daily have thrashed around so much sideways for 4-6 weeks.
I suspect a breakdown in AUDUSD if to come will coincide with a breakout higher here unless EURUSD would completely suffer an even worse fate.
Can't tell ahead of time. Purely from EURAUD - looks like a break higher could be coming. If things aren't 100% obvious and clear and scream out "do me" errr "take me" errrr I mean "trade me" then always ask yourself whether you want to put your money on something you're only guessing may or not work..and to me this is the case here. I also can't find any 4h PB on my feed.
They also mentioned, they wouldn't be surprised to see correction in Dow this year by 25-35%....
Well, if that happens we won't see 220 anytime soon...
Not really that much though, is it?
25% of 14k is barely 3500 points...I think stock markets have never really had a "real" bear market, ever..just corrections/dips..a "real" bear market would both last, trend and make continually new lows over several years preferably.
I think it's pretty amazing we really only know unidirectional movement due to the way we created and shaped our economies...everything keeps adjusting itself endlessly higher....inflation earnings profits taxes debt cycles..everything keeps moving on..
But I don't have near enough qualification to say anything about that stuff..I just trade them charts n bars :P
The day isn't over yet but looking at a DLHC on the daily chart. Looks like some resistance underneath. Any thoughts on this one if it closes this way?
I'll post the same thing I posted when we hit 1.6350 and had a daily PB - I'll be looking to sell whatever rally + setup we get :P
Admittedly, it rallied 200 more pips last time than I expected
BUT I ended up being right looking for a sell, didn't I
(And sell I did)
What I'm trying to say is - while everything carryish is falling like a rock looking to buy any bounces or retracements to me is a very daring endeavour.
Not that we couldn't end all this any day now; and the point of all the reversal setups is to sorta reverse things and all - I just don't like the direction.
That, and depending on how creative one gets with the TLs we might just be rallying to retest the underside of a lost channel.
Nonetheless, in other circumstances and within an "intact" trend the setup itself might be more attractive.
Anyhow, I'm staying a carry trade miser.
(That 1.62 area looks tempting - and the EURxxx really desperately needs to equate the DJI descent more at some point...no? Unfair preference there over GBP..but we shall see)
I'll post the same thing I posted when we hit 1.6350 and had a daily PB - I'll be looking to sell whatever rally + setup we get :P
What I'm trying to say is - while everything carryish is falling like a rock looking to buy any bounces or retracements to me is a very daring endeavour.
That, and depending on how creative one gets with the TLs we might just be rallying to retest the underside of a lost channel.
Anyhow, I'm staying a carry trade miser.
Update with an outcome of little surprise to me(And a strong doubt the JPY bears will get very far..):
I still feel that long term we're going down (weekly), short term (1hr and of course daily) we're going up.
Ah now that sounds a bit different than "one way ticket up" doesn't it? ;p
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I'd say first target area is around 111.50.
To me that's retracing, not going up :P
Obviously nothing will be decided until either that 107-108 area monthly TL goes or 114 passed again to the upside..I'm trying to be a bit less "crystal bally" lately :P
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Biggest reason it will go up though is that I took a long term view and went short (with no real corresponding PA setup) and the market is going to spank me for it.
seeking, what wld the success % of trading pa without regard to anything compare to succes % of trading pa with regard to s/r levels etc.
my back tests, have shown from 62% in the former to 75% in the latter, though my back tests are quite crude.
I really wouldn't know...but I can tell you that weeding out the good trades from the bad("it kinda sorta could perhaps look like a 2 pips 5 Minute pin bar!") will most likely have quite an impact, as will have trading only ever in ONE direction until a pair changes it's movement / trend.
Even at 62% you just need to allow your winners to actually "go somewhere" (anyone seen GBPCHF lately?) and you will end up net positive...this is why Mike emphasizes the exits so much.
I emphasize entries for me, because I find that if you get the right entry at the right spot, you're good for the next 1-10+ weeks(just look at what Mike did with that one EURUSD trade in his video at the new site!).
Basically one can't do / isn't much good without the other
The same trigger-and-fakeout happened to me on Gold before..I had my own reason to believe there was at least a chance that Gold might get another push, temporary or not, and therefore kept my long stop below the last few bars/IB windup at 852$.
As I just wrote elseplace I find it infinitely more profitable taking reversal setups back INTO trends rather than trying to make THIS one the one that will end it...more times than not - it won't end it / won't go as far as one with the trend would.
GBPUSD lately was about the only exception and that was weekly and accompanied with a lot of loud fanfare(and went hand in hand with a EURGBP breakout higher) :P
Wrote a phrasing over in 1kT similiar to:
Do you want to be wrong about the trend ending every day(on every "reversal" setup that fails) or wrong about it continuing once?
Just writing it because I, too, need to remind myself of this every so often
Are you saying that you don't trade PB as indicator of trend reversal?
Are you trading PB that only in direction with trend?
Cos I saw there are quite a lot of PB that play as true trend reversal.
Some example:
1. EUR-USD Daily TF, 2007-11-23
2. GBP-USD Weekly TF, 2007-11-04
3. USD-CHF Daily TF, 2007-11-23
4. Gold Daily TF 2007-11-26 (you will have a decent pips if your exit around support)
Well I already mentioned the GBPUSD exception because I feel that one may have the chance of actually TURNING the trend.
The others may or not have worked for a WHILE(and for really decent profit, sure), but I don't believe they "turned the trend".
The whole idea of trading with the trend is not to let go / not HAVING to let go that soon.
I want to illustrate what I mean with a quickly slopped together USDCAD chart. Obviously this is just a 10 minute piece of work and leaves out tons and tons of addons, reversal setups and tricky bits with counter-setups that "could" have kicked you out(plus it's all hindsight curve fitting etc pp).
This is all part of me trying to change my thinking into a more coherent "trend" idea, because as it turns out, during the main trend phase most "oh no a reversal!" setups end up simply being crushed a few bars or a retrace fib later, one way or another.
Other charts tell a similiar story. Of course pairs aren't always IN the trending phase, but the whole point is to constantly pretend they are, so that when they DO go there, you're riding the waves, literally :P
Dunno as long as EURGBP doesn't give up I'd rather stick to EUR for selling USD. And then in turn - if EURJPY is to fall more => USDJPY is even better yet.
And if GBPUSD is going up, who needs to outperform to make GJ go lower?
Actually my exit method is only 1- 3 bars after Price broke PB.
So in my opinion it is OK if I trade PB that counter trend.
like USD-CAD weekly chart there is PB on 2007-11-04, if your exit on bar 3 you get around 500 pips.
Do you trade if your exit method is 1-3 bars like me?
example :
Let say that the trend is down and there is PB with very long nose and Sitting with a lot of confluence (fibonanci, support, pivot, etc).
Price broke upper PB. It can be said an 'A' Trade. the only problem is the trend is Down.
Do you trade this set up, let say your exit method is 1-3 bars. or you only trade set up that have same direction with trend? because you want to avoid fail PB just like Gold & Silver.
Well I am trying to change a bit more over into avoiding setting too near targets / fixed close out points. Price should say when to exit, not me, etc pp.
As for the question I'm afraid there's no satisfying answer as with discretion based trading as I'd say: "depends".
In general I think you can't go very wrong avoiding counter-trend setups.
Obviously you can't have either wins or losses from a situation you don't utilize.
If you know from your own bottom line / backtesting that taking "both sides" works out / that counter-trend setups produce more net profit than loss, then obviously what works works.
I'm just saying, in order to keep it simple and perhaps for an added bonus if just starting to learn stuff, it'd be wise to only trade "one way" as you also only have to look at the chart one way, too, then.
It's just a different probability and target logic.
With the trend - how far can it go(*points at USDCAD chart*)
Against the trend - oh no, at which point is there going to be a sudden surge against me as the trend resumes
To each his own obviously, I'm just saying which side is increasingly feeling better to be on.
Price broke consolidation zone and made a pullback and gave us some kind of pin bar at ppz, i shorted at break of pin and now i have stop at +4, free ride..will be closing soon anyway..lol
Matty
Hey Mat, glad to see you're coming along after joining me on the light side of the pin bar force ;p
Don't charts look so much nicer without 12 stochastics on them? :P
Have kind of lurked occasionly. Family business got very busy mid year (our peak season) Couldn't find the patience for a while.
Took a while to get back to the swing of the charts again. Isn't it amazing how much you rely on having a 'feel' for the price action on top of your knowledge?! LOL
Bundy! Welcome back =D
The one guy that also uses those FE 100s
Hope you been well! And yea, that feel is starting to visit more often here, but it still sometimes hurts my feelings as well, too! :P
I also saw this 2-day pin. Short entry on a 50% ret of pin at 1.4850 and T/P 1.4700 for a profit of 150 pips. S/L at top of pin, 1.4921. In retrospect I could have let it run a bit more, as daily low hit below 1.4600.
This is what I keep saying.
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Also, quick question on risk/reward ratio. My stop covered about 75 pips and my T/P 150 pips. So would my RR be 2:1? (The way I see it, every pip of potential risk there are 2 of potential reward.... but I'm not sure.) Also, what do people recommend as a good risk/reward ratio?
If risk is A and reward is B then risk/reward is A / B :P
75 risk / 150 reward = 1 :2 risk / reward - 2 pips won for each risked.
I used to think anything from 1:2-1:5 was a really good risk/reward ratio, now I am starting to think anything above 1:5 is what one should aim for eventually :P
But don't mind me, I'm just surfing a wave of lucky break mania here :P
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Any feedback is welcome, be it positive or negative.... this is only my 2nd week paper trading. Great thread, I've already learned so much!
I just feel it never hurts to let winners run - sometimes even on the risk of giving back most; if you catch the "real runner" you will be all the happier for it. This is very individual however and sometimes it seems like smaller, snappier trades can do just as well in pumping up profit.
I really have to come back to the old adage - find what works for YOU.
the last bar on it's own is a BUOB, or a Bullish outside bar. Price went down lower then the previous bars low , and closed higher then the previous bars high. Also a reversal bar like a pinbar
Just couldn't resist posting a followup on my dream charts.
I just love taking stabs at "guessing" markets ahead of time and trying to "see" the picture before it's drawn on the chart. I think only if you can imagine it, then you can trade it well :P
Not true of course and utter bollocks, but I need to have SOME fantasies left in my adult life!
Also as wiz said, it's nice to see followups on old stuff.
These charts are from:
August 2007 (this is actually the last / 3rd chart visible for some reason)
dji_futures_160807_dreaming_update. gif (that bounce I was pondering was sliiiiightly higher! lol )
November 2007(first chart visible)
dji_futures_271107_update_creative. gif (this was quite a good drawing, wasn't it)
Today(middle / 2nd chart)
dji_futures_080117_followup_to_dji_ futures_271107_creative.gif (a replica of my crystal ball is for sale on ebay, starting bid is $100k )
I put the red vertical bar in where the last chart's drawing started
NostraSeekus strikes again! (well, at least from the November to today chart, the first one had the right idea - bounce and re-sell - but KIND OF underestimated the bounce lol)
Not sure about the bounce I drew in in November anymore though :P
Again - there is only so much the market can do...I was just making an educated pattern prediction guess..
Can anyone see why I am not touching any bullish carry trade setup with a 100 foot pole?
I also just realized what this type of thing means to most investors..it's frickin' huge moves on the chart..the dimensions are wowza..no wonder a lot of systems got thrown.
Now where's the competition's crystal ball producer's representative....raczekfx! Show your wares! I know you had some, too!
Way to go SL..
Aren't you a little surprised with x/chfs responses to equity selloff today?
It will be fun watching yen when Tokyo opens tonight..
Nope..EURCHF will smack lower any second now(it's being chased) and GBPCHF is only resilient because EURGBP is diving. And EURUSD and EURGBP have to dive a bit to compensate for the fact that EJ is around, uhm, 600 pips too late to the party - compare the topping formations on GJ and EJ and you can see how lagged it is because of the "time machine" I call EURGBP.
So as long as EG dives, GC is tough to kick lower...but here again: compare EURCHF vs GBPCHF - EURCHF has a lot of catching up to do as well!
So no surprise for me
And I wish I didn't have to sleep
I am going to miss all the fun after seeing almost 0 reaction all day
Thought you'd put up some updated crystal ball charts, too...at the very least you had them for the DJI and GJ, too IIRC
Busy Busy Busy.
10% in 2 days if I had been using 1% per trade.
I used a little more than that.
Today is a good day to die.
The evil 15m!
Well done Swami!
But don't get addicted to the lure of the quick smash-and-grab 15
She is a treacherous mistress to keep..
Oh, but he is right of course, the new site is taking off faster than I would have ever imagined...Jim is really pumping all of his heart and energy into it...and everyone else is, too...the content is growing daily, literally.
Just have to say this, because really everyone is pulling forward and it's pretty incredible in a great way
Not a perect pin bar position , as far as the action around it goes, but a strong statement amongst this familiar setup.
Did you just say erect!?!?
"Dude, that pair was so hot...gave me this raging erect pin bar" ;p
My, this thread is deteriorating fast! ;P
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Even better when you are waiting for this exact setup to happen waaay before.
That's how I felt for 6 months in 2007 :P
(not a good thing, I got disappointed like a dozen times for months before what _I_ wanted happened...GJ and UJ was sooooo much nicer and cleaner...meanie beanie EJ)
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Seek, dude, notice the FE 100 target on EurJpy??
First stumbling block may be where it's sitting as I type. %61.8 of last Up move.
Yea, if 155.55ish(plus minus unsteady FE hand hehehe) is your .618, then we have the same projection ;P
Noticed the target quite early and it was what made me constantly a rabid short through October/November :P
Dito GJ of course, but that's already smashed it's FE 100!
Which is kinda bad, coz I'm running out of alternatives(got maybe 205 area, 200, 190..but those might take a while and not go there in a straight nose dive the next 20 minutes, doesn't that suck? I think it does..)
Btw - stay off that 15m...1h just gave a much nicer one higher ;p
Sort of a good morning present to me, it was there 5 minutes after I got to the PC
Bit skeptical about it though, everything's a bit thrashy...can you believe Asia BOUGHT the carry/indices(futures)? Crazy..time for London to get to it I guess..
Just a reminder as to why there is NOTHING WRONG WITH HIGH TIMEFRAMES.
I know wizard loves the 1h and Swami just hinted at 15m and Bundy chimed in, BUT, especially if you are beginning, you want to give yourself the time to actually lose errrr build your account SLOWLY(but seriously, it IS about delaying losing real live money until you know what you are doing) until you really understand what you're looking for.
CADJPY was just such a terrific example of
-hold on to your winners
-don't mix timeframes(daily PBs that had no meaning galore)
-don't trade against the weekly PB
-good risk/reward
-pin bar was after a "smooth" BUB, not in sideway traffic, eyes level, open/close at the low
that I just have to post and emphasize this, BIG.
250 stop, over 1100 pips moved already -> well over 1:4 risk/reward.
This is the trade we're all looking for.
I think it helps to to not only have the setup in your head, but the potential(target), too, eventually.
Sell 115 while thinking about 100. Why not?
And to repeat myself over and again - find that ONE trade a week that could do this and even at 1% you can get 4%.
If each week you only take one trade and that one were to be one like this and you managed to make just 2% on average per week(some may lose, some might not go up to 1:4 risk/reward, etc) - you will double your account in a year.
Just some sobering compounding figures on controlled shots vs overtrading.
Why compromise on "could or could not be a semi-decent pin, sorta", forcefully looking for setups every day, is what I'm saying if this kind of stuff also exists
Since the DAX has just chunked out 350 points since opening(less than 6 hours) and has dived over 1000 points since New Year, I thought an update to my by now ancient(around end of August 2007) S&P futures target ideas might be alright in the same vein as the prior crystal ball posting :P
Hiya
Can't give any trade advice...this is simply what I see on my chart:
It looks like if it were to move, it has room to 0.7250 before the first "tops" come in again / past that area and it's 0.7050 going by weekly.
Seems like a valid BEOB bar from it's "placement" / OHLC.
Can't tell you what/whether to trade and what not though and given the steep move up I also do not know how it will all end
Usually steep rise with little s/r = risk of steep descent if momentum can build(remember Gold last year? Or the last AUDUSD meltdown..).
What was the question again? How about the BEOB? It's about 200 pips and red! ;p
Well said however from my short experience so far i disagree with the fact that you will find a trade like this once a week. Once a month maybe if you are lucky.
IMHO they come more often than one may think(daily and weekly trades); but I believe the trick is that one entry can last for several weeks and then becomes many many sub-trades(addons, etc).
This is all stuff I will go into more detail on in my section / videos / journal over at the private site. I have a thread there I want to eventually fill with these setups and explain the how where when what and why; if possible from memory of having actually taken them myself. Possibly I'll do charts and video, maybe only video. Not sure yet, probably both.
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So what do i learn from this? Perhaps that is what distinguishes the profitable trader from the loosing one when starting out. The first is disciplined enough to take walk away from the charts after finding nothing on thier TF while the other has to trade so they look at daily, 4hr until they find a trade.
Ahh this is big. Yes, exactly. And the thing is - it isn't a trade, but a gamble since you FORCED it onto the chart. It didn't "jump out at you" / come to you, you PUT IT THERE.
Makes a whole lot of difference.
What really screwed me up and locked me inside "break even hell" was simply taken "trades" that were really gambles, not trades.
It wasn't until I reduced these entries to almost nonexistant size and stopped more and more to do them that my trading picked up.
---
Oh and since raczekfx mentioned it - I'm just starting out as well. I don't think I would any time soon categorize myself as a "pro", either. Just because you're actually making something of it doesn't automatically make you a pro
But then I have very far fetched and strict definitions of a pro...basically a superhuman idea
We have what looks to me to be a good setup on EU/GBP. 4 hour pin after failing to make a 3rd lower high. We might be in a triangle though so I'm going to be careful around .7415. Any opinions on this one?
It's going sideways. Look at where the ask/bid line is and where all the prior highs are..ew, messy.
You want to buy/sell into empty space preferably, not into clogged areas..yesterday's IB got double-faked as price first appeared to lose 0.7420, but really did not as 0.74 catapulted it back..and now it's a pinball machine between .75-.74...is this where you get an ideal entry?
And to which side?
Now, I have my suspicion where this will end up, but I'm just trying to outline some thoughts of this vs other, much cleaner setups (say, didn't some bloke post a weekly chart just the other day...that one looked a lot more cleanish where it pinned, dinnit?).
I'm just saying - do you have things you look for before considering a trade a good trade?
If not, why not, if so, which things? Why these things? Why do they matter to the setup? Why do they matter to the trade if it triggers? How do they integrate into your trade management?
Etc...these are some of the thoughts you should be having and have considered BEFORE putting the first dipper of live money in ideally...well, we're not in an ideal world, but you know what I'm driving at, ya?
Or maybe I just didn't sleep enough and you get to be my grouchyness victim now
Just kicking around some thoughts..I'm trying to draw a blueprint for the ideal myself all the time, trying to perfect it..
(HNS = head and shoulders - probably what Tiki sees on the EURGBP 4h chart)
Anyone trading weekly USD-CHF PB?
Must be because trading against trend that cause this one fail.
I think one also should be aware that the USDCHF just like the USDJPY is also used for the carry trade, and if the whole market is unwinding carry trades, like on the EURCHF(have you SEEN that chart!), then USDCHF will be hit and influenced as well.
IMHO it would have been simpler and more effective to sell the EURUSD, which had pro-dollar setups as well. In my opinion this was definitely the better pair to use for this.
As we can see either way, what with it being a countertrend trade, it did not get very far, and the reaction against the short direction(short EURUSD, long USD) was accordingly strong.
Ironically, I have the suspicion that many people chose USDCHF over the EURUSD because they felt they would then have smaller stops.. forgetting that the reason they would have smaller stops was the fact that the pair had less energy to move in their favor(therefore having covered less distance).
At least this is my take on things, and you know, I do like to make it rather complicated
Since I went through the time and effort of writing this in a news commentary, I thought it's best put to use here as well, as it may show how I think when I look at the chart.
Maybe some people find it interesting
I'm just gonna post it in original form BUT as a special for this thread of course, add the chart in question as well
-----------snip!-------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLFB
What signals are you looking at, where are the Technical Signals leading you? You are reliant on Technicals , what are they telling you?
My techs are always price, s/r and TLs on the chart only(no indicators).
USDJPY hit a projected target at 105.35 area and reacted quite strongly accordingly as I suspect people took profit at the round number that is 105(as did I - I am out of most of my USDJPY shorts at the moment due to this target hit and reaction of 105).
Numbers like these are often quite pivotal as they're something to "orient around".
We do not have a close below 105.50 yet on a daily basis, let alone weekly.
We have had lower highs and lower lows since the 27th December as direction remains downwards. Currently all rallies are being met with selling.
The complete 100-101.50 / 104 / 105 areas are strewn with support, making progress difficult.
However, we do have a weekly close below the 1995-2004 TL so the potential for a test of the 101.50-103.50 area remains.
Current rallies if they gain traction could go up to 107.50-108 and form bearish setups to sell for these attempts.
The main problem remains that given current market conditions the danger of an out of the blue crash is as similiarly possible as an out of the blue short squeeze leading to areas of resistance.
If there's a move and close above 108 there's another nice area to watch for just below 110 for bearish setups.
Re-establishment of anything above 111.50 and personally my looking for bearish setups would be over.
The charts are messy simply because if it is the cuts that make the equities go up that are supposed to spur the carry trade, then per the very definition the USD must also weaken because of the cut - and you get a torn USDJPY.
Both explosive USD selloffs as well as drastic stock market moves lower will push USDJPY lower; the question is, when will either come.
For me the fact that we have reached clusters of support and hit my month's traded towards price projection simply puts me in passive / cautious mode as I await clear bearish setups(a clean rally with preferably lots of bullish euphoria posts for a bit in a straight line, then a sudden, out of the blue stalling, bearish engulfing or pin bar / doji candles at relevant areas as described above and then a trigger short would be a possible scenario).
Right now price has said both "I don't wanna go below 105" as well as being capped by a short term TL intersecting the 107 area, making for a "I'm so tired, can't I rest?" tugged and torn USDJPY.
Not the time to go in big.
I suspect a failed rally will most likely enable a new setup, however risk remains that the JPY pairs exaggerate a bit as usual.
I am looking for USDJPY shorts below 111.50, EJ 160, GJ 222(well I'm sorry it's that far away, but it's EURGBP's fault!).
Favored sell spots for USDJPY for me remain round number areas 108(weekly TL underside) and 109(horizontal s/r line).
Anything above that and I want to see a bit more of price behavior first.
Plan is: await reaction at marked areas, sell setups if they appear, target 105-106 retest, 101.50-104 on break of that with appropiate trade management stop wise as situation warrants.
Main focus is always USDJPY as I feel the USD selloff on the majors that happens a lot of the time distorts the crosses a lot, whereas USDJPY is both kicked by USD weakness AND stock market weakness AND, the rare occassions that that ever shows, JPY strength. It is THE core pair, motor and catalyst for most of the crosses' progress(EURUSD is barely 345 pips off it's all time highs, yet EJ is 1250 pips off it's high - who did the work here, USDJPY or EURUSD?).
These are my reasons, this is my plan and now it's wait and see how it goes.
UJ EJ GJ and the DJI have hit some support, so the initial reaction was probably profit taking(definitely the case IMHO on UJ) and resting orders being filled => bounce.
As is the adage on all downtrends(or downwards directional moves if one feels a monthly close needs to be in first), sell rallies until the trend is over.
I don't know if any of you guys have access to the J16 site. I post a weekly review and forecast of what's on the charts and going on every Sunday called "FXNotes". If you dig around on FF's public side you will see I have done this for over a year, the first half of it on the public side. Mostly to sort out things for myself as I put it into words.
I also have a journal on the new J16 site where I post setups, forecasts and trade development basically every day. The initial USDJPY trade from 117.xx on down to 109 was outlined, the bounce at that area(TL etc) was drawn in, the later bearish setup at 114.xx then utilized to resell, then finally the FE 100 projection at 105.35ish reached. Charts usually for me have comments on my thoughts like "lose 113, get 109" or "below 107 and hitting the FE 100 should be a must" or "This TL (at 109 area) might be ugly".
Similiar stuff for EURCHF etc.
Some of the charts are also strewn about the public J16 thread, but really it is my journal that has like 5-30 posts per day, cluttering it with charts as my main chart gallery :P
Links/sources:
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8442 is the "outlook for price action" I tried to do way, way, WAY back when(oh my, I was very, very green in some areas still, the wording alone tells me that there was still a L O T of ego in there...never good.."I can tell the future, heed my words"..no no no hehehe not good.) and that now turned into the "FXNotes" in pretty much the same format. Bit more stoic now, more brevity ;p
(Hey, that's us here! If you look over the last few months you will find the two example charts on the USDJPY where that 117 BEOB and 114.xx BEOB trade is at..but I can also post an update on that, too)
Hi again Seeking Light,
If possible, could you elaborate a bit on this statement "above 109 I want to see a bit more of price behavior first"
Does that mean you are willing to short between 108 and 109 without pa confirmation? I doubt the answer to be yes so my question is really what pa would be enough to sell between 108-109 but not above it? I hope you understand me.... Thanks Sebastien
Hey Sebastien.
Like you wrote what I meant to say was not that I would short without any kind of price action. It simply means that beyond a certain point in price levels I would be very hesitant to "trust" the bearish potential, unless there was a really good sign in the way that price reacted or how the bars formed that told me, okay, we're back selling with full confidence.
Basically I currently think that we are getting very very close on some pairs to critical levels like the one raczekfx just posted.
Beyond a certain point the downward moves are essentially negated for me and the bias either shifts or becomes unclear.
And once the outlook becomes unclear I need something to help me feel like I know what is going to happen next again. I look to price.
I hope this explains little bit. I know it sounds very complicated, but it's a little bit like building a relationship. There's got to be a mutual trading of trust for things to go somewhere together, otherwise one of the two will always want to go one way while the other goes the other way and that's not good for the account.
USDCAD chart since I just read about CPI speculation("CAD may spell opportunity" - well yea, it already did...price comes first and unlike the news outcome, this one said ahead of time where it would go once past the lows of the bars. I really don't like all this baseless "oh look a news number is upcoming, there may or not be a move coming that could take all this a lot lower" speculation - because there's no need to speculate if you can just listen to what the chart is saying. We do not gamble our money away, we do not speculate on news. We trade price. Well, that's what I believe we're trying to do anyhow ;p)
This imho is how you could have viewed(and traded with PA) the USDCAD(and EURUSD, GBPUSD...etc pp. It's a bit annoying when all charts show the same thing because it's simply a mirror image of the DJI..makes it all feel very un-unique.).
BEOB signals an interim high may be reached, IB means market is trying to think hard about whether it wants to hold or lose that s/r of the prior high, then gives up with a sigh, falls to prior s/r area(breaks down BEOB and IB).
No indicators, no news, no fundamentals. Chart and price.
If you look closely you can see how similiar the last part of the trending channel is to other bigger channels like the daily GBPUSD one or other pairs that trended like that and then started to contest and lose their channel.
One last thing Mr. Complicated(that's me) would like to point out about the GJ pin bar:
If you have a bullish outside bar+IB+break higher on cable, plus a weekly BUOB on GBPUSD, and GJ shows a bearish set up, if you were to take both, you could just as well be short USDJPY instead as you buy and sell GBP at the same time.
Only one of the two can be really right / end up working(at least in theory; of course it is possible for GBPUSD to rise as GBPJPY falls; but UJ would have to outperform, rendering GJ vastly inefficient in comparison...and you know about Germans and efficiency, ya!).
(imho it's actually not THAT much a complicated way of thinking! ;p)
Basically you have two witnesses for a crime scene, both of them are telling you their stories, and only one of them can be true
I have to disagree here SL, it often is very important how one exits a trade. You can get bumped out of one over the other based on how you exit, and then if you only took usd/jpy instead could end up greatly hurting your bottom line. I dealt with this problem for awhile when I was a pinbar trading machine on the 4hr and often you would have multiple pinbars across multiple pairs at the same time(often where two pairs were essentially trade xxx/xxx pair).
Mike
But I'm not disagreeing with that
This is what I'm saying; taking both could very likely lead to one bumping out, while the other works. That's what I meant with only one can be really "true".
The reference to UJ simply meant that if you really believed that GBPJPY would go down, while at the same time believing that GBPUSD has to go up, then UJ would show evidence for bearishness, as there could be no other pair, which would cause GJ to go lower.
So instead of going long GU and short GJ, one would decide on long GBPUSD and then look at UJ. Is there a short setup here? If so, instead of GJ take this one here parallel to GBPUSD. If not, how can logically GBPJPY not rise/how is it supposed to fall, if GBPUSD is set to rise as well?
That's what I meant, not that you should take UJ alone
Efficiency(= my overcomplicating) isn't for everyone ;D
It takes a special kind of crazy!
Anyhow - never said it was necessarily for beginners...but I still firmly believe that using logic only hurts a little once..after that, it's painless ;p
I've done it before and I'll keep on doing it until the market completely bends to my will, mwhahaha!
Okay, enough german traits for one post, on with the charts ;p
Let's see how high EURUSD and GBPUSD and AUDUSD and Gold can go..me, I want 960$ Gold, minimum!
..and I also want < 105 UJ eventually pwetty please!
very sorry if this query had been asked before but i'm with Oanda so would their 3 hour charts make me lose out on those 4 hour price action like pinbars, etc or there's no difference ?
also my daily bar closes about 3 hours before London opens so that not standard as well............again, is there any big difference or none at all ?
Hey findcount
You might also consider doing what I do, simply use MT4 for the charting and trade on Oanda. You don't miss out on anything and you have a charting software actually worth calling it that
Currently held back by s/r, but once past that - I smell a plunge coming IF it can get there.
Update
One of the last USD buying resisting pairs, amazingly enough, after the current ADP super-blastout(130k forecast vs 40k expected, kicked down EURUSD 50, GBPUSD 80, yet USDCAD continued lower merrily -> EURCAD down. And the Equinox called from Helsinki, too! Said it had the Stockholm syndrome.)
USDCAD behaves differently from many pairs. There are less players on that table, easier for a few big blokes to move it in bizarre shapes. You can almost never get "V" shaped charts on any long term charts except on this dastardly pair. It can be very easy to trade once it trends heavily, but other than that you are in for one crazy ride.
I quit trading it last month to avoid blood pressure problems. I am too young for this
If I mentioned my personal conviction(timeshifted / simply differently timed wave cycles) I'd just get slapped around, so I'ma hush and reduce it to: trading the chart :P
(I had the same resolution about USDCAD before btw, simply due to the often "erratic" spikey moves...not that that was any help ;p)
This is actually a good example for Mike's point - each pair it's own chart and trade, regardless of the rest.
And to shock both of you - I have 4 MT4s open. Used to be 5, but that feed got discontinued and I haven't found another good GMT feed since. Anyone know another GMT feed other than IBFX that doesn't require full disclosure down to third removed ancestry to get the demo of?
(P.S. biggest reason for so many is that one is for the actual charts, one for only the USDX, one for stocks and commods and one is for fun drawings, and the 5th was a backup of the 1st..)
SL you think anything you do shocks me at this point: How long have i known you now!
What I hope is that you have more monitors then you did before where you had these little itty bitty boxes all over the place! Do you still have that screen shot that I am talking about.
Not sure whether I still have the screenshot, but I still have the profiles like that...and worse! Especially the "just for charting fun" MT4 probably would give people nightmares...but even my main MT4 is cluttered to no end...
I have found that even though I have 2 TFTs sitting around, the second one is no use to me since I need a "one", a "unity", a sort of simultaneous price ticking impression in order to let me know what's up at a glance. If I had to turn my head to look I'd feel like I'd be abandoning the info on the other screen :P
Control freak issues I think. I'd much prefer a twice as big TFT to the second one :P
Next one will simply be a big / wide screen HD compatible TFT or something :P
Yes folks,
5 MT4 platforms And this from the guy who advocates KISS your charts do less better: Jeeeeeeeeeez, if this is simplicity, Id hate to see complexity! How do you do it Seeking, or tell us the truth, in real life can you talk and butter toast at the same time hehe...Raz
Actually I play drums, so I can do the tummy-rub-and-head-patting-type of stuff no prob while talking about current events
Seriously SL, post that screenshot of your mini Currency pairs all crazy from awhile back! PLEASEEEE
I looked, I can't find it. I'd need a keyword for the filename.
Keep in mind I have a repository of 3000+ charts by now :P
I have simply snapped a screenshot of my "scraps n pieces" MT4, which is basically 80% identical, plus some new stuff.
It has 59 open charts on the tab bar, plus I keep track of the deleted ones as additional temporary storage(86 in there so far, I think MT4 only lists the last 100ish and then fails to manage them correctly despite telling it to save more deleted charts).
This screenshot also still includes all the 500 s/r lines that are now all a thing of the past.
What I chart the big picture on and what I trade off isn't the same thing, if it helps the shock
Hey Mr.T. ...... i think that instead of marijuana ... (500 s/r LINES ?) here we are talking about a guy who is a long white line addict ...
(no offense SL ... just joking!)
However does anyone have thoughts on the next two charts ......
Me! Been having thoughts on this one since the first daily outside bar
Also posted that and the monthly outlook over on the J16 site in the GBPUSD discussion thread...it's something I am watching closely..(it's also / was also basically the same thing that occured on USDCAD just the other way around...but things are shifting now..)
I have to say I don't smoke and instead of coke I have moved on to Pepsi!
Wait..I can't say that, I don't even get paid from them :P
I'm at LEAST as skanky as Titney after the amount of charts I've mooched through!
I need to renegotiate mah dealio!
Can you draw a clockwise circle in the air at speed with your right foot, while drawing an anti-clockwise circle with your right hand??
Yea, (just tried) but I don't last long, it appears the upper leg muscle required to do this isn't exactly highly trained here :P
I realized you need to really focus on the leg/foot, the hand is rather simple to task on "just do a circle" => tons more practice in co-ordination I suspect.
Great, now I feel like a really shoddily connected circuit board :P
While sitting at your desk, Lift your right foot off the floor
and make clockwise circles.
Whilst doing this Draw the number 6 in the air with your right hand.
Your foot will change direction and theres
nothing you can do about it. :
Actually, I'm going to post this in the relevent section too. LOL
...WITH a poll. LOL
Nah, you can do that, too, it's just tricky when you reverse the right hand for the "closing" of the 6. Tried it as well. Maybe I'm doing it wrong. I assume I am allowed to stop after drawing the 6 before drawing a new one?
But the first few times sure looked funny again, same as last time..takes a short while
I think you can move all limbs completely independently if you just practice long enough and if you haven't "fused shut" completely yet :P
I still can't play open/territorial rights
Hi Seeking Light, If you find the time, I'd liked to have your thoughts on the eur/chf. I know you mentioned a while ago that it had to fall much more. Now, I wonder if is has fallen enough to your satisfaction.
I can't say anything on the setups, but the fall went to the area I was looking to exit at and look for further clues => 1.5875. Boy, did we get one :P
Already taken a profit. ....Only because I screwed up my Lot size. ...Again
LOL
Already had my gambles on Gold instead and riding the EURUSD / USDCHF train..far more feeble trends to try and bend as opposed to the freshly hiked AUDUSD :P
(But need just as much caution...this is all very low risk - as in money risked - stuff once again, no surprise..)
But classic, isn't it. The market knew over a week ago and started buying for it; then it's released and it's out. Buy the rumour, sell the news indeed.
Now, let's let today turn into a really ugly carry trade dying death fest with a bad ISM to catalyze it all, shall we?
I would like that very much!
P.S. Bundy are you still in the J16 group? There's usually tons more action in my journal and all the other people's, just been a bit quiet lately due to trying to recover a bit of my hands which have been overused..
I miss the polar bear
I have to play only A+++ trades on gold while that particular account is starting out. Expensive to trade. Been on the EURUSD trade since yesterday. Took ages to get running though, didn't it?! All safe, now, on that one.
Was hoping for that. LOL
It's nice to have that sort of experience pay off now. Isn't it?
Indeed, took it's sweet time. Same here - all secured now
Shame there wasn't a nice setup on USDCAD as well...
Quote:
Yeah baby! Got too many trades open now. In short on EurJpy though, so won't be totally left out. ....and I see it had a DBHLC too on 4h. Nice.
And a daily IB and a 4h TL loss just now I believe =)
Quote:
I get too busy to justify the membership most of the year. Don't get me wrong. I LOVE it. If I don't have time to make use of it, though, I'd rather invest more into one of my trading accounts. LOL ...Anyway, I've got my box of tricks from there that are working great.
The curse of the 15m, I tells ya!
Quote:
...BUT, funny you should ask, as I'm keen to clock in again and have been debating it just these past couple of days! (Would love to watch the videos) I'm just about to head into another busy calendar again though. Dunno. We'll see. Bought Forex Tester yesterday. "HEAPS good" investment too. (Sorry. Friends daughter keeps saying "Heaps good". LOL)
=)
Yea, sounds like a fun toy, it does.
Quote:
And my Avatar is still a Polar Bear!! I feel like a smart a*** at the moment. The new one looks more to that effect. LOL
Hehehehe...very good =)
Still liked the old one better, looked more grizzly ;p
As much as I love the 15 min I go through stages where I don't bother. Most of the time I'lll just happen upon a favourite setup while screwing down to lower charts. Just a few more tools mate.
Happy trading for the rest of the day fella! I've moved stops, locked in some profits and calling it a night. :wave:
Yea, would like the DJI to break that "step" channel and just fall...however, slightly worried we may not...or at least not in the massive steps I'd love to see this happen :P
P.S. Well done on January so far Tiki! I got to hurry up, else you're gonna start outrunning me and everyone else!
Seriously though, well done on being + in 2008 =)
Since Jim just sent a mail around about it and the fact that it hasn't even been a week when we discussed this very thing, I felt this was worth showing everyone.
Just with the stuff we've got in this thread alone, together with some of the more in depth stuff we do on the site, you can go from feeling like a "sideway mess" to "love sideway trading" when looking at a chart.
Look. Boundaries, setups, ride to next boundary. Cash in, repeat.
What a great example of PA in action. We just discussed this very chart last Thursday and here it is all again, doing the same things over, and over, and over..
I will never forget how this thread has changed my perspective from just seeing forests of bars to actually seeing things happen on my charts..for me, this changed everything.
Ironic to see what the last few posts were about, as I just spent an hour talking about PA and PPZ(in a J16 Skype/Screensharing session)...sadly the audio didn't record and now it's video only
But I will make seperate videos on it again, because I don't want the 5 people that showed up to the session to be the only ones having had a chance to see and hear it
damn that felt kinda good. i love my baby. she has been here from near the beginning when you never saw more than 30 people on this forum at one time. now its thousands and thousands. you done good merlin.
jim
There's a good reason a thread survives that long. It's because what's in it works
I'd say I'm still not touching the Yen short(long xxxJPY), but I probably sound like a broken record by now, having reiterated this for months :P
I am so hoping GJ stays below 207.30 now for good...and UJ finally gets it's breakdown...and EJ FINALLY loses that gigantic weekly TL...and...and..and :P
This is my second attempt. ...I'm happy with the risk! LOL
(Baby sat first entry Friday to a little bit worse than breakeven. )
Really interested to see what wins out here.
My thoughts are with governments being keen to stall any major breakdown in the global markets.
....But I don't particularly care too much.
A good daily pin is a good daily pin! A pin off the lower fibs to go with that gives me a lower risk ratio. Who cares if it fails!
True true...the brother was nicer though, GBPCHF and EURGBP..no idea if you saw at the time...also GBPUSD seems to be the one responsible more than UJ...I'm sorry, the Equinox has me...Just wanted to say I remain cautious one way or another, stops are tighter than usual and a lot of vigilance is needed..
Already took a bit of profit at 207.50 retest on the way down, seems you took the other side after it came back up! ;p
It feels like the USDX might suffer some buttkicking again soon, too..
I can't believe I didn't get any kind of decent entry into AUDUSD..but at least I have some Gold and Silver to hoard :P
Good luck with GJ, EURGBP should be on your side :P
I'ma stick to semi-hedging my GJ shorts with well justified GBPUSD longs
With you here.
Seeking the equinox is 21st march....it's the begining of spring just now
And V-Day approacheth
But I was referring to Mr Trend's Helsinki Quadrant Equinox super secret power formula approach which I like to utilize in my simplistic world and market view(check a few posts back) :P
I use targets MOST of the time. Occasionally I see a trade I want to let run.
If you ask me there's no right or wrong way on this. You trade the setup the way you know works best for that particular case.
Mike's pretty good at lettin' em run.
I'd say a good rule of thumb is: favor letting it run if you're getting in long with the uptrend after a retrace e.g., favor targets if trying to bend the trend or in consolidation mode.
Remember the "leg parity" stuff I mentioned about pin bars(Steve Nison had the same idea it seems, but I thought of it independently, too, so nyer!)?
AUDUSD basically got 35 past the left bar's low or roughly the same length as the last 2 bars before it, then ran into the support zone..bam.
Given that we'd been rising and chopping along I guess it was ok to adapt to the environment..sometimes taking a little vs nothing is a better deal, sometimes you need to let em run..knowing when to do which best is the tricky bit :P
AUDUSD also has been pretty parallel to Gold lately...Bundy should know
Check out this DBHLC on the GBPJPY in Aug. 2007 on the Daily. This move was worth 1900 pips.
IMHO a sub-optimal example.
It's a completely sideways motion and there was no steep run up prior to the reversal setup.
I think the most reliable setups are those occuring against/at PPZ, preferably with added confluence and "clear" of noise.
It worked out because all of the carry trade was being beaten to a pulp at the time(there was also a sideways HNS and subsequent loss of support / break of a bigger support as well); but ideally you don't want to take "reversal" trades in the middle of the chart if there's nothing to reverse due to a sideway staggering..where are you going to move to?
IMHO there wasn't a great or clear setup on my daily chart during that whole sideways except for "breaks" and retests / level losses..but no really great PA in itself showing.
The EURUSD chart and GBPCHF chart show how there can be "boundary" setups that work okay within a range at the extremes though and with a real "run up" first.
I have been documenting this trade in the PF for weeks now. Here is the scenario I had expected to play out, and so far it is on track to keep going(next stop breakout and pullback chart 1)
Chart 2 was my original chart. I think this is a good pair to have on the old watchlist
Mike
Coolies. I'm in along with whoever else is on board.
My own reasoning / chart interpration => journal for all the PF members
(TL break being one of several of them, but didn't realize that the right side may just form a shoulder, too, very nicely done Mike!)
Also EURUSD / GBPUSD had quite a few very nice setups on both 4h and daily..(EU -> 4h PBs, another entry off of one of the J16 systems this morning for another reason, GU -> daily IB and kaboooooom today..the USD is having a rather bad week, isn't it..)
Oil is an old addiction of mine, even though I currently have no other commodities than Gold&Silver, but I might put a little into a scoundrel market maker type outfit again just to get my fix on those.
Just had to post this chart of a "how the ideal trades woulda gone for me on the last leg" thing, by the numbers, so to speak.
I am not going to label / title the numbers or the entries, because I think part of the fun is being able to just see and nod eventually, and this is a chart for those folks.
Again - no need to go below daily, this one was plenty of fun on daily alone. And oil is like lightning sometimes anyways, so not the worst idea to keep it a bit more sane with daily bars :P
Enjoy this hindsight generated chart :P
P.S.: one could have also put another entry on the break of the 3 bar engulfing pattern / s/r as well, since one would not have known ahead of time whether 2 would actually present itself.
Hi,
I'm a major lurker here and love the thread.
Was a member of PF at the start but had to leave for other reasons.
Am studying hard now and just wanted some advice from you experts on this demo trade I'm currently in.
The questions is, where would you put your SL?
I know everyone might have a different view, but the views would be nice to hear.
I've previously put the SL above each retracement (marked on chart)
You will see my TP1, TP2, TP3 etc and I've now hit the next TP level.
I have other TP levels at/around 205.80 and again at 204.60/204.90
Would you set you SL to previous TP levels to lock in profit?
Cheers for any advice.
Colin.
Hi Colin (sorry to everyone that I haven't really posted, been away and will stay busy for the next 10 days still plus I am quite ill),
just wanted to say that's basically exactly how I would have done it - initial above BEOB, then after TL breakdown move it to the "bounce" / retrace, then I PERSONALLY(and this is because I am trying to swingtrade more and am trying to catch the breakout move, which CAN cost you a lot if the reaction at the range boundary is strong and holds) would not move it anymore until the low of the sideways range is broken or a contrary setup appears at the boundary.
Once 204.50 is lost I would move the stops down to 210.50ish(i.e. wide buffer and just a "disaster stop" - but it means another 400 pips locked for my higher swing entries as the stop moves from 214.5 to 210.5) add a small position on the break of the low and think about where my next TP is at(200, 190, 180?).
Then the next break below 200 would let me look for a next lower swing or level to move some of the lower entries to, to secure them in turn.
IMHO the hardest question for management is exits. TP at set spot? Trail? Wait for reverse PA? Try to foretell the future? Tricky. And very individual.
So in short: other than you having too many close by TP spots(Why not aim for the low area of the range of 206.8-207.50 as first TP instead of so high/early?) for my taste, I think how you moved the stop to the TL bounce/retrace area was right and logical.
And then it's touch and go from there.
I can't believe people are still fighting trends(some even on 5 Minute charts)..IMHO the name of the game once EURUSD broke out was USD weakness and carry unwind; the first phase should complete soon and if the stock markets lose their January lows, then the next bit might be quite ugly and unorderly..as the crosses implodes then we might get that USD push, but up to this high the USD majors look very, very scary, don't they...
I see the "locals" have been holding it up, keep it going!
Well done on some nice trades Bundy, Raczekfx, etc etc..
I'm still gonna be a while...
Btw - creepy, a really bad NFP and we get 1. an initial USD rally 2. an initial stocks boost...crazy world...evil spikes!
But seems things are back to normal and resuming the end of the (american) world plan..I wonder how long it will take for us to see those 'fun' moves again on the carry pairs...
Best of luck to everyone and keep in mind what Raczekfx said: this is NOT a game. Risk control!
There was large size on the offer as it hit 1.5500 and it came off 20 pips or so. Then it had another go and there was, once again, a lot of size defending the level.
I'm short 2 lots at 1.5489.
There was a nice pin bar on the 15m that I saw after the event...
If EURUSD moves up 1000+ pips(1.4440-1.5500) and comes off a handful at each resistance/round number, why take the handfuls instead of the hundreds/thousands?
I don't understand that approach at all.
I also don't feel USD weakness is over if next week is to see another 50-75 bps cut and the market tends to pre-empt / anticipate rather than react, so I bet as long as that is still on the plate(and further cuts are not by official statement ruled out) then I suspect everyone will not be overly eager to buy USD.
I remember the time well when I'd had shorted a run up on cable early in my trading "career", several times over, always at the top, for almost 1000 pips progression upwards as well.
I kept getting screwed on my trades as price simply pushed on and on and on.
In the end I had lost a bundle, looked at the chart again, saw an almost linear rise and asked myself: "good god, why didn't I just BUY?" and felt rather stupid for quite a while.
This is the first trade I've entered since Mon/Tue. If it reaches the blue line I'm taking some profits and setting B.E. on the remainder. ...from there we'll see.
Seems quiet here. :
Nice Bundy. I see it already moved nicely.
Everything on daily EURAUD looks kinda bearish, too, yet I have this sort of suspicion that if those carry trades go bonkers it'll be a fierce competition between who can drop faster, EUR or AUD
Both AJ and EJ have been ridiculously(spelling?) resilient, whereas CJ and GJ have already fallen to pretty devastating levels.
EJ is QUITE skewed. I wonder whether the EJ unwind will coincide with a larger EURGBP correction as well.
As for quiet - thrashy mess, but the weekly close will possibly make next week VERY interesting if those "tops" everywhere complete / trigger.
Just took profit @ 1.6490 (1.6498 buy) ...two thirds closed. Just happened to walk in from Xmas breakup at the right time to catch it! . lol
Xmas breakup?
There's a 4h EURUSD PB triggered this morning that I wonder whether it will initiate the whole EURxxx story, including a retrace for the USD to fiercely sell again :P
And yea, USDCAD has been whacky and I completely missed the one nice EURCAD long entry of this week (at 1.5150)
Hmm I'm pondering whether there's any chart I could post, but there's really nothing much out there atm..I'd post the EURUSD, but due to the intervention along the way any kind of "normal" progression just got screwed, else there'd be at least 1-2 things to show, but meh.
I'll make one or maybe two(if I can manage) new videos for the J16 site though.
On the carry/YEN pairs, of course
Looking at the big picture, there is a lot of danger to both sides and IMHO we may retrace a few hundred pips lower than 1.5 if it's a genuine correction setting in eventually.
The question to me simply is - will the great EJ crash come through USD weakness or through a "proper" panic based super-unwind like we had before. With massive melting of almost any and all pairs alongside.
One thing is for sure - massive rallies bring with them massive weakness as well (look at Gold in 2006 -> 730$ peak, 544$ crash, 10$ above where it began).
I usually keep quite so i don't admit my ignorance however i must say that i don't understand your statement at all about EurUsd intervention. I thought that the reason why this pair is on such a tear (beyond the fact that USD appears to be unwinding as the worlds trusted financial currency) is that there was no intervention by ECB to sell Euros or the Americans to prop up the dollar. If there had been then one could have expected a sharp retrace down before it continues in inevitable movement up?
There was that one concerted action a couple of days back with the $200 bln story or some other liquidity injection/concerted bank action I believe. Trout / Jay Norris had a news post on it as well, I think that was the one.
The spike / distortion I meant was on the 11th March with the 150 pips up, 200 pips down thrash into 1.55.
Otherwise it would have been a nice diagonal decline over which one coulda drawn a TL and then on TL break and retest taken the trade.
This is what I mean/meant (maybe I'm just wrong, that could be as well, but except for that spike move it woulda looked really nice on a technical level to me):
Like you know, I'm new here. Busy working through the thread.
On Inside Bars: How do you trade them? I understand that they indicate a possible "breakout" scenario.
Thanks
Werner
This can vary depending on the situation. The simple version is a straddle of the IB itself - pending orders and stops on both sides.
However some traders might give one side preference(I do almost always).
Also be aware that not all IBs are created equal and as always placement matters.
perhaps some of you took advantage of this nice beovb (tbhlc..?)..
Yes to both GBPUSD and AUDUSD(and NZDUSD), nothing to trade oil with.
Mostly benefitted from GU via GJ though since those three above are just "toy" positions as my main risk is on the carry at the moment.
Quite frankly I am wondering whether it's time for the buck to get some payback in now...have a feeling 1.6 won't be the next roundish number we hit on EURUSD, but there's still some hurdles to take.
Either way - things have moved on to psycho mode imho.
Hey Seeking, whats your take on tomorrows news? Is the magic ball clean.
I suspect if they do make one of the biggest rate cuts in history that the USD is possibly not going to benefit :P
That's about as much as I'm willing to lean out of the window, anything else, such as stock markets etc might get thrashy, very thrashy...imho it might be the usual "relief then realization" pattern, but who knows. I doubt we will ride to the stars, personally.
But in this environment anything goes. Wild moves, dangerous times.
Important quote:
"One thing is for sure - massive rallies bring with them massive weakness as well (look at Gold in 2006 -> 730$ peak, 544$ crash, 10$ above where it began)"
And what I'm trying to say is - every strong rally eventually ends, especially the unstoppable parabolic ones and this is where it's time to protect stops and get ready for a correction or turnaround.
The media and other sources(like me!) will try to irritate and confuse and manipulate you, but you must never ignore what is staring you right in your face on your chart.
That is the only place that will give you any relevant information as to what's going on.
The fundamentals surrounding things can be this way or that, have some influence and whatnot, but there's nothing to trade off but the chart if you choose the PA way(putting aside the exotic traders without charts ;p).
And influences can deter you from making a sound decision. I found this another great opportunity to reiterate how important it is to analyse, estimate, understand, decide, plan and trade for yourself.
Also this is a warning to myself, I don't want to end up being a Jim Cramer :P
"Buy EURUSD! No! Don't take your money out of your EURUSD longs! EURUSD is fine!" ;p
And another point was: isn't PA great?
Thanks very much for spending time reading my posts
Have a good trading day and I shall leave you with an update to my earlier EURUSD monthly chart(another source of manipulation, beware):
I am new to the J16 thread and methodology, but after reading through the first ten pages of the thread
- The edge of the Keltner channel
- An upward short-term channel
- The center of the Keltner channel on the Daily TF
Like a new med student, I want to practice my diagnoses, but also to receive your thoughtful, constructive criticism. What do you think?
Hey Drummer! =)
I think that later on you will read the Keltners aren't really used/relevant.
We're really about pure price(only channels used are those constructed by TLs perhaps, but really Jim mainly uses s/r - as in horizontal - to the best of my knowledge)
To me there's only sideways chop on the 4h; daily has a BEB and weekly as well. I do not see a setup here at the time; the setup that was the one to take and most took was the PB at the top
Do stick with it though - I am sure you will find many interesting things and nuggets along the way if you do invest the energy to work your way through the thread. And hey - it's a long weekend!
P.S. Personally I think all those PA indicators are ew. I'm all about that self-sufficiency(far far over the top like so :P). Why people invest more time into programming an indicator rather than just looking at a chart is beyond me. And given the completely misguiding output of them, why anyone would allow themselves to take twice as much time sifting through their bad output instead of just using a clean chart and a set of eyes, also escapes me. Call me a grumpy old man! :P
..aaaaaand I'm interested in this thread again! ;p
Good jugs? I say bottoms up!
J/K, just wanted to throw out an updated USDCAD chart with 1-2 PA examples drawn in. Prolly not any and all, but some of those that are at important areas. I currently have high hopes for the latest short =)
Why? Because it's brother pair is showing this as well - EURCAD.
But before people start accusing me of Helsinki-Equinox trading again, I'm just gonna shut up and keep my super-special-power-secrets to myself and my journal / chat sessions, where I'm free to spread my lunacy without fear of repercussions hehehe :
Hey guys, you're all welcome. Just trying to give back in the same way people helped me out back when I started.
This thread's always been about that and will always be, just the same as the J16 site.
Price went exactly when expected. For some, 5500/20 could've been a perfect TP and reverse area.
COULD being the key word. I'm out TWO HOURS, in those two hours my TP of 1.5500 is missed by 10 and I come back to a red position(Oanda doesn't have trailing stops) and a missed cable pin. Sheesh people, who's running shop here, I need to complain! ;p
Wondering what the consensus was to the broker and the time feed?
Regards
Alex
Hey Alex!
If you've read the thread carefully, this has been discussed several times.
It doesn't matter which feed you use or whether you use 1, 2, 3, 4 in conjunction(just means more to decide on).
In the end you can trade any of them and the world doesn't end if you were to miss a pin on one feed
Dito for daily by the way, which imho has similiar implications. One way or another, you have to settle on something and then it's back to the same outset as before: learning the basics and the application, then the finesse and so forth
Looks like you're using the "VM Candle Price Action" indicator but it never picked up that pin bar. I've tried testing various candle pattern indicators but so far I have not found them to be that reliable for regular use...
The whole point of this thread was to get rid of and away from indicators, and people go and make up indicators for indicator-less trading.
That says everything about humankind, doesn't it :P
Some really great setups...and thanks to the EURGBP time machine, GJ showed the same setup as EJ did around 2-3 days before, to illustrate the potential
I really like these BEOB, IB combos(remember USDCAD?).
GBPCHF had the same thing as GJ parallel iirc. And as I wrote, timemachined EJ, just with a doji at the .618 first.
Was originally in GJ, however closed it at around 0 as price came back the very hour I had to go to sleep and I did not want to leave it unattended 8 hours. Turns out it fell 1-3 hours later. Oh well. Got the UJ(not shown here) and EJ IBs however.
Might be the next step for USDJPY finally.
The warning for these came via S&P, attaching that as well.
SeekingLight, if you didn't even notice the 10k count until things were already over it, you might be a J16 addict.
SeekingLight, if you dream of tall pin bars instead of tall blondes, you might be a J16 addict.
SeekingLight, if you have more naked charts than naked women saved on your computer, you might be a J16 addict.
SeekingLight, if you go "aww man, why does the weekend have to come NOW" on Friday night, you might be a J16 addict.
SeekingLight, if your definition of true beauty is level eyes on a pin instead of on a girl (of course eyes! eyes, of course!), you might be a J16 addict.
Okay, I gotta stop here as I'm realizing all my analogies end up regarding women and that stops being funny after 3+ times as the concept becomes apparent :P
The poor women! ..seems it's a good thing I didn't decide to go for big bucks doing standup comedy :P
Have a great weekend everyone and big to James for being the one with the true staying power here
Hi SeekingLight! Thanks for your reply. Do you mean the Eur/jpy?
No, I was referring to the posted AUDJPY chart.
Quote:
Because the nose doesn't poke out that much, right? I also see a pin on the Eur-Aud for a long...
Also, SeekingLight, I remember your chart of the cad/jpy you posted a while ago, where you were targetting the 89-90 area... (I remember the chart 'cause I saved it! Also as I'm a Canadian working in Japan and paid in yen, so you'll understand how interested I am in this pair....) Well if you could, please post any updates. Sebastien
Nothing much new there. I can't for the life of me remember WHY I put that free floating blue box into the chart, but to show I am not cheating and that it got respected perfectly, I am going to post the three weekly chart progression for CADJPY.
I really really wish I could remember. I suspect it was a fib cluster and I erased it again because I thought it was silly to expect price to react just because of two projected fibs.
Boy, was I wrong
a PB confirmation off the low?
.. does it give a signal to go long on carries and dow...?
we shall see in just few short hours how good it was.
Well GBPJPY is still suffering..here, let me post some funky geometry
This is how bad it gets when I don't stop drawing ;p
I keep on seeing new stuff to put in, especially on 1h..(even just now after posting, on the top right - there's a support -> resistance flip I didn't draw in!)
This declining TL is pretty much mirrored on GBPUSD..question is to which side we'll break, no?
I for one quite frankly do not side with the "the bottom is in" believers in regards to carry and S&P/DJI...I think we still have to get that one big wakeup call move(whenever, but we DO need to see it imho).
How can one be be very successful with a win ratio of 38%?.
Gerard
If one has a risk/reward ration of 1:2.65 or greater, one still makes money with that win ratio.
Some "trend traders" e.g. have this sort of win ratio or if you had say more losses due to smaller stops, but bigger winners due to higher leverage because of it.
Let's see what raczekfx says
Quite frankly I don't see how a broker's timezone shift will make any difference.
Either price was somewhere or it wasn't - and you will still see reactions regardless of the "shape". Highs are highs, lows are lows, regardless of where the bars are cut off.
It would be great if any one of you would be having a .doc file on James16 strategy so that it would be more understandable. Or if you have any other way of helping me out, that would be great too!! =)
Thank you!
Kind Regards,
Babz
Well I'd say things become more and more clear the more one reads and moves along the thread. Just make it a daily 15 minute bedtime reading, you'll get there
You can also always click the paper clip icon next to the thread and get a list of attachments, under which you'll find pinbar pdfs for example.
But that really is of no use if you haven't grasped the concept of s/r flips and location / confluence and PA yet.
The gist is to look for good(proper shape and dimensions) setups at crucial spots(s/r, confluence).
What and where those are is detailed in many, many posts
I wouldn't just skip it, far too many great things to learn from.
Decide whether or not you're serious about your trading and you'll find the answer whether it's worth it
you can see another low 3 bars to the right (actually 1 pip higher - but I'm not that fussy). OK, for most 4hr charts those two lows would be in different 4Hr bars and thus show Support - right?
But they are only 3 bars apart, so could both be in the same 4Hr bar - so then it is not support ('cause you need at least 2 hits for S or R) right?
IMHO you're thinking much, much too small, timeframe, touch and reaction wise.
If it's a proper PPZ it won't just double touch it and react one time, within one day on a 1h chart.
A proper PPZ imho WILL show on any and all 4h feeds, regardless of broker. I don't think you can find me a 4h PPZ that only shows on one, two or three brokers but not on the 2nd/3rd/4th.
Per definition, to me, in my mind, that's just not possible.
This is what I posted in Seeking Light journal a couple days ago...
We've just hit 203.65..
ok.... back to cave
.
Very true!
But you cheat, I didn't have that daily GC pin bar!
Regardless, I went long on GBPxxx (all three, really) none too late.(Did you buy that fourth USDCHF TL touch btw? Bet you did! Had a 1h PB, too!)
Also as discussed in my journal, I have been eyeing up GBP as a "freak performer" with potential due to EURGBP getting overstretched for a while now.
All GBP doing MUCH nicer than that EURUSD trade that I got mule-kicked out of
The stock market rally pretty much laid the foundation for the rally in high yielding pairs and carry(CHF, JPY based) and that should also answer the correlation question about the DOW. Carry trade and stock market rather than USD.
Excellent view.
Trading GBPUSD isn't easy anymore these days
On the monthly, you have a bearish pb that doesn't look like a first grade one but if it played out you may say later:omg why did't I consider that?'. The previous weeks' candle was a bullish outside bar. On the daily we have a beob, however,we also had a bullish setting that played out very nicely on the 4hr.
Okay, let me earn my Equinox-Helsinki keep.
Monthly has twice rejected 1.9350 and stomped it in as (temporary? intermediate?) low. The newsletter didn't reach the bears in time, so they kept selling above 2.0, what with the downward momentum and all, plus you're sposed to sell rallies, right?
After quite a bit of struggle, we managed to escape the downward move and create a BUOB on weekly. What a turn-off for the bears!
Now, we know BUOB's like to retrace. Retrace means a move against the BUOB direction, which in turn created the daily BEOB(The last lagging bears perhaps? Slow readers I assume!).
How else could it retrace but by going down?
The 4h then gave a 4h PB at the .618 retrace level, the classic fib.
That meant a 4h entry into the weekly BUOB and the daily BEOB was really just a retrace.
2.0 remains a tricky area and that's why we're pausing here once again.
Riddle solved! :
Now to sell tickets for the time machine so people can buy back into that 1.9750 low!
Would anyone happen to have a trade log to calculate the units (in Oanda) based on the specific pair and the stop size (risk)??? I would like to risk a set amount on each trade, so the unit size will vary with the size of the stop. I trade in Oanda, and this would be a handy tool. You can enter a percentage in Oanda, but it deals more with Margins as opposed to risk.
Thanks,
Eric
email is
I recommend you submit this as a feature request to the frontdesk at oanda, as I have repeatedly told them this is something people want. The more that ask, the more likely it will be included in the future.
I just use the live market quote and watch the displayed stop size distance to try around until the displayed stop size equals the risk I want to use on the trade. Takes a few seconds and is faster than using an Excel sheet imho.
P.S. I'd take down that email address, there are most certainly people just waiting to harvest it and bombard it with spam / bulk mail. Just say PM me instead or put it into your profile's details, where it will remain hidden.
Instead I will ask:
Have you found something that makes you profit that you have kept, stuck to and traded for longer than 2-3 months?
This includes the fully automated, mechanical EA attempts as well as discretionary trading, be it with A-H or J16 or anything really.
2007 was a huge learning curve for me and only now has that due diligence is starting to pay off.
Patience for A trades, Money Management, its all about managing loses not profits, etc., are important things to learn and practise. But, I have found that Perseverance is the number one drive to have.
Indeed. I just wanted to say thanks for contributing.
I believe you're exactly on the right track with the above mentioned key elements.
On that note, I remember reading a thread/article from james himself which made me raise an eyebrow about this issue of pips. I've just fetched that article and it can be found at his website under guest material... It's called "100 pips"
I'm not sure I agree with the "100 pips" for virtually every trade on each pair. I believe the underlying concept he is trying to convey is to have discipline to only take A trades.
Indeed I, too, believe that in this case I believe this is more intended as a patience, discipline and confidence building exercise rather than anything else.
Looking for, finding and trading the good setups AND THEN NOT OVERTRADING AFTER YOU'VE GOT YOUR PROFIT is basically key.
I'm actually amazed this thread ties in so tightly with the J16 site that each resonates in the other so well.
Incredible.
Speaking of journals, keeping a journal is very helpful btw, be sure to check out that section of the site if you have the time and if you wanna, start up one yourself. It can be a really educational experience for yourself as well as others
(not addressed to anyone in particular, more said towards anyone with access and not writing one yet)
I don't think the comments meant too much harm. Possibly it just got a reaction because IMHO it's a bit of a touch of that "those other threads" stuff if too many "entered at x, exited at Y, did this did that, what do you think" things pop up...because you all know what happens soon after that, right?
Things mutate into something like the cable thread or the xxx pair thread etc
Egads!
But I don't think anyone minds discussing setups and charts.
We know that Price Action on higher times frames tend to retrace before they break. Woolley's 4 hour setup may show the start of that retracement.
And still fulfill the Daily's DBHLC move down. Albeit, a higher risk trade.
So wooley's price targets could be fib retracements of the Daily DBHLC.
Any thoughts?
I've posted about this before. Getting a bearish reversal setup at the BOTTOM of the chart or a bullish one at the top of it is kind of pointless, as there is nothing to reverse. It's also very much selling into the low / buying the high of a chart, which simply is the lousiest r/r I can think of. This doesn't mean these things don't sometimes work out, but if we're trying to be in early, make the most out of a move and shift probability to our favor, it certainly won't do much good selling lows or buying highs.
There are people who say they like to "buy strength and sell weakness", but imho that's just another way of saying "I've no idea about PA so I am always terribly late".
IMHO our main advantage is getting a heads up as EARLY as possible, so being "late"(highs / lows) isn't very fashionable
Also - we can't go in one direction on an "initial" move down forever. There will be a retrace of the main move IMHO. I wouldn't even be surprised if the weekly bar closed back within the range of the prior bar. It just feels due soon, there's only been chop since the 25th, so we're most likely near an end of the first push. Right, off to pick some cotton
Ha ha,
I think hes telling me Im way off, but Im not sure either lol, anyway Im going to the beach so have a nice day and watch out for NFP! take care, Raz
I'm just emphasizing what realtors everywhere agree with - location, location, location!
I've posted about this before. Getting a bearish reversal setup at the BOTTOM of the chart or a bullish one at the top of it is kind of pointless, as there is nothing to reverse. It's also very much selling into the low / buying the high of a chart, which simply is the lousiest r/r I can think of. This doesn't mean these things don't sometimes work out, but if we're trying to be in early, make the most out of a move and shift probability to our favor, it certainly won't do much good selling lows or buying highs.
There are people who say they like to "buy strength and sell weakness", but imho that's just another way of saying "I've no idea about PA so I am always terribly late".
IMHO our main advantage is getting a heads up as EARLY as possible, so being "late"(highs / lows) isn't very fashionable
Repeating this as the posted charts show a similiar dilemma imho. EURUSD got all of 65 pips before reversing that "DBHLC" at the low of the chart(size of that stop = 216 pips, moved: 65 pips, r/r = one to zero point errrr something, 1:0.3 or so, even at max. pips moved).
Just to illustrate I'm not making it up.
Sure, "this doesn't mean these things don't sometimes work out"(matter of fact I'm sure people could find me quite a few that went and moved really well etc), but I personally(my preference) would much rather have more optimal situations or at least situations coinciding with other events of significance in order to make the setup more meaningful than the bar alone(break/confirmation of something important or similiar).
It's just areas where price has shown to react before.
S/R in essence, from the chart(no idea where else one would get it from - all formula based stuff is arbitrary and random imho).
There are tons and tons and TONS of examples in this thread(sometimes labeled s/r, sometimes PPZ and once I think I called stuff like it "building blocks") and in the J16 site and videos.
Any thoughts on why this pin bar set up didn't work?
One could argue that it wasn't triggered - and if it isn't triggered it isn't a pin..
I think we had a definition flying around where it isn't a pin until it trigs(which is why the retrace entry stuff is always a tradeoff between higher leverage and more risk due to an unconfirmed setup).
Initial PB long, add on third 4h TL touch(not drawn in as this one is already a bit cluttered - but I'm sure you'll be able to find it: just connect the first two lows), then took it up to 1.96.
Around that bit I wanted to watch for PA and react accordingly, and around that time I suffered 2-3 hours of power outage. When it was back on, I saw a triggered 4h PB and a lot of red...oh well, still got a bit.
It looked like a 5 wave set(strange EW nrs on chart, just something I try myself at parallel) and with a retrace right to .618 and a weekly stubby PB, waited for 1h stalling and something else to tell me this wasn't going to just rush-and-crush on. When I got that, got back in(based on the weekly setup -> retrace entry) and put stops below 1.9390 initially(second lowest low, invalidation point for me), then moved them in as we moved to 1.96.
And here I am waiting to see whether 1.9666 goes and 1.97 is hit...
Also took a bit off above 1.96 as there's 1-2 other reasons why price may or not give back a little.
Had it not been for the power loss, it would have been one great trade progression, and I would have possibly even taken a small short on the 4h down to either 1.95 s/r or the TL(i.e. very small / short term due to the s/r and weekly PB).
This thread is invaluable. Thanks to everyone. I played this trade almost identically. Entered on the break of the pin. Took half off around 1.96. Added to my position on the same retrace. Ultimate EW target was 1.9770 area. I put a stop in at 1.9720 thinking maybe we would get there today, then pull back.
I have been trading this market with real money for 4 months. This one trade just made up one quarters worth of 'learning expenses'. All thanks to you fine people, I am confident I can achieve my goals. SeekingLight, I have been stalking you at FF for while (your perspective seems to match mine) and you led me to this thread.
Hey JB.
Congrats and thanks for all the kind words. I'm glad you're finding value in the things we have here. It's always been about sharing and helping each other out here and I am right with James I believe when I say the attitude and "content"(on many levels) here is hard to rival anywhere else.
I'm sorry that I put in the EW stuff, I usually try and keep it pristine and clean here..I just wanted to explain why I'd have been both tempted to sell only for a short drop and was ready to buy back in again as well..but the PA reasons(4h PB down to .618 eye retracement on weekly) would work out fine on their own.
Didn't want to push my Equinox master label anymore than it already is
I'm going to try and work a bit more on making things less complicated for my own sake as well in the future ;P
EURUSD. BEOB at the same resistance former PB formed. First on 4h, then on daily. Once that closed, long pin bar on mini-PPZ to initiate the retrace up to the .618. Hit it to the pip along with several short orders(now who would do such a thing!) and dropped like a stone.
The long 4h PB was endangered because of the daily BEOB(in case anyone was tempted long). Also 1.5740 had a small chunk of minor s/r as well, which was where you could have become cautious as well.
I understand it's hard to "know" when the long PB or the short BEOB is more important...and sometimes it's hard for anyone to tell. In this case imho a second move was still missing on EURUSD and both daily and monthly were not giving that many thumbs up to buy up here.
Also the PB/BUOB looks a bit in mid-air to me(and has a terrible shape), despite the small PPZ flipzone :P
Regardless - even that mini-PB would have worked for a handful of pips with an aggressive TP or swiftly adjusted stop.
I'm curious to see how far this will all go. EURGBP should run parallel pretty much most of the time is my personal guess.
Hey everybody, How does this 4 hour pin look? Its not quite closed yet, but it looks like it will close within the body of the previous bar. Good confluence with previous PPZ and 50% fib line. Only problem is that the nose does not stick out beyond the previous bar.
It might just be a reaction of that prior highs area. Looking at daily, it looks more like it's moving out of a wedge formation.
Personally, with EURGBP bearish (and hence GBPUSD robust) I won't be very GBPCHF bearish. But I'm biased :P
Lacking a bit of "price data" to make much sensible markings on the chart though...could mean erratic moves eventually.
Oh, and what FXP said - there's no pin on my lower TF chart, either :P
The whole definition of the pin is the long nose protruding out clearly from the bar before it
Here's a pair loathed by many for good reason...one of the rare occassions where it might actually not go racing skywards for a day or two could be here(Totally against the trend and evil wicked bad, but I thought ach heck, got to post something if I log back on. Just saw it now) - for Equinox fans from Helsinki, this also comes parallel to a NZDUSD BUOB:
Just wanted to post this since the USDCHF dilemma was in discussion over on the J16 site as well.
From the site:
"I think the problem was there was no clarity in how to look at the chart.
If we can't see it, how can the guys pushing price around?
We've had a BUOB which formed with a close just above a s/r. So, okay, where can it go? To the next s/r zone. It did. What does s/r do? It rejects price.
It did, and we closed as a PB. Now, whether this was just a reaction of the s/r, or a genuine sign of reversal - how would anyone know?
The low of the PB was held in by the lower end s/r, the upside capped by the upper s/r we reacted from.
Price is "caged" in the middle and any trade here needs to be aware of that. It's these situations that often have very choppy action(I'm suffering due to this as well) and imho tend to end up with a pressured move either way eventually.
The safest bet may be to let it pan out, let the chips fall where they may and if a retest + setup (like say an IB) comes on top / below a just taken PPZ, go for that instead of trying to break the PPZ by sheer willpower ahead of time."
Hello Mr. demark, Those are the areas of S/R he speaks about in his post. They are areas where support becomes resistance and resistance becomes support. AKA the PPZ, this pivot price zone is just that as opposed to a pivot point. The PPZ is very much central in J16 trading. For the blue lines in MT4, go to Insert, Shapes, Rectangles, and just drag it to the shape you want.
Later
Roy
Yes, exactly. Thanks for helping out while I was "out"
You can also customize your toolbar to include a quick-icon for the rectangle by right clicking the current icons and choosing customize.
yeah. I just did. Thank you. Also Seeking, what are your views on USDCAD. I " think" it bounced off a PPZ. It scrwed me in the process
Stuck between 1.03 and 0.98. Preferably don't trade the middle, but the extremes(i.e. the borders of the range only).
In case of breakout, look for a setup.
I'm sure this has been posted somewhere down the line, but if not, here's my opinion about IBs. (Since these have been so popular everywhere lately )
In a PA context IBs are supposed to represent indecision. And to me(read: personal opinion follows), not just any, but obviously indecision at a spot, where THE decision actually has some sort of conclusion and followup.
Say we're forming an IB that is pierced by a PPZ. Or just formed next to a BEOB or PB, like we had in some cases.
Or any other spot where a break of the IB could also be a squeezout, breakdown, etc pp.
Looking at various sideway weeks, you're not going to lack finding IBs. But imho finding those that have a kind of "meaning" to them is what makes a good trade out of it.
Simply being "lucky" and allowing them to run when they run is of course also a viable option, but you must always keep in mind that your wins need to outpace your losses, either by likelyhood (win%) or return(high r/r ratio).
I (also) believe that it's not just the knowing-knowing("Ach yes, sure, I know I shouldn't have, but..."), it's the really KNOWING, and therefore upon this realization then actually DOING the right things. And only those.
I just wanted to add to FXP that there's one thing always true:
Trading can be dirt simple, but for almost anyone(starting out) it is NEVER easy.
This isn't because the trading bit isn't possible(or possible to be easy); it's because people aren't easy.
I dare to say: Trading requires many things as characteristics that are the exact opposite of the things that people lured to forex often possess.
I would even say that, for many, if they did not have the characteristics initially that WILL MAKE YOU FAIL IN FOREX, they would probably not have been interested in forex in the first place.
How is that for irony?
If anyone cares what some of those might be: need for instant satisfaction/high hopes for quick returns ==> also greed, impatience, lack of discipline, easy high emotional involvement.
-
Trading is almost exclusively about yourself after a certain point X of "getting it".
But this is getting too off topic and I don't want this to turn into a sidetracking discussion. I really don't.
But over at J16 this is one of things that I am slowly starting to realize is more important to coach people at/with, than almost any of their basic pattern recognition.
The more I watched myself on my own journey, the more I watched others on theirs, the more apparent it became that the real education really happens mostly inside our own head and that account growth very often links up with personality/character growth / behavioral adjustment.
Okay, enough excursion. I just want to put a big emphasis on and underline the fact that the idea of J16 is not just to have a place with a handful more super-secret hidden setups and PA, but imho also(and imho more importantly) geared towards resolving the exact dilemma just described above.
I certainly can say that that's what I've got my eye on.
And this, much more than the question whether approach x, y, or z is so much easier or cooler as a system or approach(heck there is almost an infinite supply of systems), is what gives the environment the value in my opinion.
The confrontation with yourself(and different ideas). If, that is, you allow it to happen.
-
Personally, I realized several times that I very often instead just got lost in the day-to-day FF fray. What I dub "gamble trades" often increased with posting intensity.
It was the isolating myself/taking breaks and retreating to a more controlled environment that helped me in getting more perspective on myself and my trading again.
There is just so incredibly much noise in the open.
One gets lured into FAR too much involvement.
I think this is a dangerous trap for almost any trader.
All of the above thoughts are just my personal opinion as someone who has traversed a variety of forums and gone through a lot of changing phases myself.
You should never just take my words and posts for granted(I've also posted a lot of silly stuff over the thousands) and you should always be skeptical of anyone on a forum.
Regardless.
This is how I feel it is.
My single, individual perception only, and so far.
I really don't understand why PA traders would short at 1.59?
Raczek practices an aggressive "on touch" PPZ style that I've marveled at since I started reading the thread. He's posted pictures of and explained this on this thread several times over time.
Over at J16 there's a subsection of his in which he has a thread with examples of this stuff where others also exercise this.
I believe something of this kind was meant.
In it's nature it's not a bar setup, but a PPZ kind of setup. Not intended or suited for first steps trading imho, not suited for everyone(I don't think I could ever make it my mainstay), but something people do use. And some very, very well.
after all that talk i think i need to read a winning statement
anyone got one of those for the past month for PA?
I feel like I'm writing a rant a day lately.
I hate to do it in this thread, but I'm getting fed up with this kind of behavior. IMHO it's just so much trolling.
There's one or two guys in particular who seem to love to instigate randy "statement, statement" chants, along with a group of dedicated followers, and me, personally, I'm not very fond of it catching on. It's one of the reasons, I, too, can get very fed up with FF and open forum behavior in general(it's not just raczek, and best I know, the phenomenon isn't confined, either).
Here's what I think.
I think there will be some who prefer to sit and do nothing until someone has catered to their whim and there will be some who will actually open their eyes and see what's in front of them and take hold of their opportunities.
Me personally, I'm definitely not a caterer. I have always helped people who are willing(in thousands of posts, in hundreds of PMs), but I won't cater to demands.
I think the biggest sillyness in it all is, that there are actually people less willing to believe in a logic held in front of their eyes(which they could independently verify themselves for functionality or not IF they were to just put in the TIME and EFFORT.), rather than in a digital statement in a time where we can make whole movies based in virtual reality, let alone magic together a simple statement.
In trading as in life, you WILL get what you want to believe in, just like rustyjeff said.
If repeatable setup + trade = outcome(I've accumulated around 3000 chart gifs over time, I'm sure it's all fake though!!111) isn't convincing, nothing will ever be. If you can't accept reality, how can you live in it.
If I'd waited to do something decisive about my trading until someone held my hand, showed me tons and tons of statements and said in a soothing voice "There there, things will be alright", I'd still be moving from thread to thread, getting nowhere, knowing nothing.
You make a choice.
Anything else is just shifting responsibility to the others, since hey, of course they're the ones who need to do something(provide proof, e.g.), not yourself (Actually pick up the slack and get going. Nobody is saying be blind or take things for granted or move without due diligence. Oh no. Quite the opposite. But if you deny EVERYTHING, then you're automatically left with NOTHING).
And that's what I think this type of "nothing before nothing" behavior is destined for.
Going nowhere.
--
Barely some hours into the week, and this is what I wake up to. What a way to go.
Pondered 20 minutes whether I should even post it, since I'm just so tired of all this sillyness. I just can't stand this type of thing at all anymore.
It just gets older than Methusalem and it doesn't ever seem to stop.
The simple reason why it's absolutely, mindnumbingly pointless to demand a "statement", because it actually holds NO statement as to functionality at ALL.
You can give the world's greatest system to two people and one will blow it smithereens and one will make more than the creator(I wonder whether anyone said this before. Oh wait...this guy on the VERY FIRST POST.).
Quote:
Originally Posted by james16
the thing to remember is that two people can take an identical entry and one will lose and the other will win.
This is true for ANY approach and you can find countless posts of people saying "took the same thing, didn't close where you did, ended up in a loss, shame"(or the opposite) all over FF.
I've also seen plenty of people take "signals" from systems that never were valid and proclaimed how great they worked, just as soon as folks that took stuff that never was an entry in the first place and declared someting dysfunctional.
Q.E.D.
Does the guy busting it to pieces make the original work any less or was he just not made for utilizing it / lacking the experience and practice to use it properly?
You tell me this is anything less than awesome once you "get it".
Again there were no surprises here.
1
We pin on top of the broken=>retested descending trendline and right on top of one of our lower support areas. After the pin, which wasn't that super-perfect, we even get an IB to complement it, showing us that price, when asked where it wants to go, said "I'm thinking about it!"
2
We get another IB(this time on IBFX) after a bullish bar already reveals some of price's intentions(plus the itty-bitty higher lows, higher highs)
3
We hit our clearly visible and marked target at around 1.9950, where many(including me) take profit
4
We know nothing ever likes to go all at once, so once price bounces off the top of an area.
Where can it likely go again to check where it's allowed to go?
To the bottom of the area we just hammered out with our Pin. Indeed, this is the classic "retrace bus" phenomenon once more. We also closed as a weekly PB(despite being at one heck of an odd place) just before this retrace.
Conclusion
The prior bar highs and retrace bus area holds, the weekly pin retraces to about eye level and we get kicked back up. We manage new highs and, if we close and establish a base up here, now suddenly have 300+ new pips of potential.
I did. It was a terrible, sloppy mess and zones were violated a lot due to all the thrashing down there.
But on the other hand, these levels, as you said, have been "used" for years and after watching price move through and react at some of these spots, you get at least a rough outline(i.e. I am fairly certain I could tell you about 10 minor GBPUSD levels if you woke me in the middle of night :P).
GBPUSD imho was recently one of the worst pairs to find a precise step-on-step behavior, but it's usually the terrible chop that comes before the next pop. And it's not like it was impossible(we've had a lot of great examples posted for GBPUSD setups)...it just was noisy at times.
As always it's knowing when to trade and when not to trade.
--
Some personal rambling:
We just hit 2.0150.
To think there are some fun-da-mental-ists who think there's no way on earth GBPUSD could have staying power above 2.0.
("can't see a bullish pair" / "cannot see $2 holding on it if it does break topside")
Or this morning I saw a headline flash by on BB that GB was doomed, because it's on the brink of recession.
If you want my personal opinion(and personal recommendation) - stay as far away from these "wild guessers" as possible and stick to what's real: your chart.
Trust price.
There's a good chance it'll do what it(price itself) says it will do rather than what others say it SHOULD do.
Me, I can't think of anything more decisive than a breakout.
The current 1h bar is 115 pips low-to-high in size.
Yes, what a terribly weak and shattered currency, no bullish pair in sight! :P
And instead of just going by other people's words, see for yourself what happens in price once 1.9970 or 2.0 IS retested.
I know what I'm gonna do if I see a bullish setup. And I know what I'll do if there isn't one
For anyone reading or re-reading the thread, if you have the time, would you copy/paste links you find of central interest out and collect them?
Just open notepad alongside and copy down the post links with a word or two.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=11643
trading can be simple, but is never easy / Trading requires many things as characteristics that are the exact opposite of the things that people lured to forex often possess.
warning against open forums and noise and involvement
--------------
It's just a thought.
Personally I am trying to make a sort of table of contents of some of the bigger not-so-everyday posts that I wrote on the J16 site and I am most likely going to include some links to what I posted here as well. I centralized it in a thread over in my section.
For anyone wanting to explore the thread, there's a lot of "any new setups?" and other interspersed fluff("long from $price!"), and I'm sure many people want mostly to collect the things people put a lot of thought / text into.
Anyone who will be going over the thread again anyhow, if you want to do something like this for just 2 mouseclicks extra and 2-3 summary words under the link, you'll be creating yourself an invaluable reference source / TOC.
And if shared, be the hero of quite a few people I'm sure
Just an idea. Doesn't have to be a new mission, but if someone is going to do it anyway, it'd increase efficiency and one could have a sort of TOC as said.
I'm only/will only doing this for the last couple of things I could actually remember doing recently(and for myself), since I have a feeling some of this stuff / some subjects will always crop up again.
Could just be: Link / Post Author / Keywords or core line, subject and then the next.
Scary. Still has a lot of that bad taste I get from seeing a lot of my early stuff.
There's a certain tinge of, er, let's call it "undeserved ego" back when, that really rubs me wrong when I read it now. (Not that I've fully got that under control yet, but I'm trying to get a grasp and moderation on it..)
Just was in no place to make some of the posts I made in general I think, it was at least another year too early.
It's alright to sound like you're comandeering something after you've spent a certain time on it, but back then I was just a few months into it and most of what I posted felt and sounded like I had it sussed(even though I added frequent caveats).
I mean, of course, I UNDERSTOOD the concepts and saw the setups, s/r and so forth. But it was a LOT different.
But it's a common behavior I think. You think that just because you "get" the basic idea, you're already done.
Oh-boy, but are you ever not. You then have just begun.
One and a half years later.
So much has happened.
And some of the old stuff shows me how how much more picky I'm growing as well now...and I'm much much more trying to decide on ONE side and trying to look for a much bigger picture..and and and.
You start to actually get an idea of what it IS you're doing(and/or doing wrong/right).
And over time, a lot of misconceptions, early beliefs etc were processed...a lot of stuff got tossed out, on some of the always true stuff you find out the actual reasons why yourself over time, some other things stew a while as well...
You begin to notice things, not just things on the chart and their influence, but also people and their influences...you notice behavior and behavior types. Some of the more real pitfalls, shortcomings....
Some original reasons of being stuck, sticking points...lots of things just take some time to evolve.
--
It's such a strange fascination to(in theory) still be doing the same thing as on the first day and yet be doing or having or being in some things completely different..
notwithstanding other PA factors, can someone tell me if the circled/shaded area on the gbpusd chart is a "proxy pin" playing off the "x" pin on my chart? thank you.
IMHO it's an inside bar. If you need two bars and a proxy excuse to generate a pin bar, it might be a bit too much of "fitting fact and fiction".
If it doesn't scream "here I am, rock me like a hurricane" I wouldn't find it very sexy to trade. I don't think it's ever a bad idea to be picky(with/within reason).
///
Since there's most likely going to be enthusiasm tonight (screams of "Any pin is sure money!!!!" echoing through the halls perhaps? ), always remember:
I (to repeat Jim's warning if I dare be so bold) strongly urge anyone taking trades with PA for the first time to not wildly throw real money at it to begin with, but to practice until you've got proven profitability.
There might be this lure of "hey all these folks seem to be trading this type of bar and it really works for them all, why not just try it, can't work more or less than anything else has before"...don't!
Learn what it is all about first before comitting real live money.
*heads off to a few hours of sleep*
This is EXACTLY my problem, I enther short today GBP/JPY 208.600.
"No setup = no trade" should be tattooed across the top side of every trader's hand, so that he's reminded whenever he moves his hand towards the mouse/keyboard
Quote:
I know, it will drop more,
You KNOW????
How can anyone know what happens in the next few hours and days?
You might have a firm conviction, a strong belief, a high degree of probability you feel for events to come, but you never, ever, ever know.
This is why we use stop losses and wait for setups.
Usually right around when we think we have things mastered and figured out, we're approaching the "get ready to be humbled" point(at least so it has often been for me!).
Quote:
but have no patience
Then no live trading until you've proven to have developed enough.
Quote:
and also an absence of selfconfidence for the retrace, which happend. I know, it has to, but on the other hand I thought, "I?ll miss this entry, price will never be 210, short now."
Fear(and lack of confidence in what you're doing) has hurt many a trader. Fear of the very next setup failing, fear of missing out, fear of ...
It's one of the big problems one needs to solve before next step up and as you said
Quote:
I`ll work on this, I promise.
one has to work on it before taking things further.
I think these problems are what plague just about anyone starting. I know I've struggled a lot with all of it and still get plagued by it. The more one works on it, the less disastrous an effect it has, as it begins to dissipate over time.
But it has to be recognized and attacked, lest it do real damage.
big thank you for your reply. I had a bit of analyzing to my strange trading behavior, based on what you have written (sorry for my poor writing, english is not my mother language, I only practice it by reading CD booklets).
You're welcome
Keep at those booklets, seems you're doing quite ok!
Quote:
"No setup = no trade". I plott this, and pin it at my monitor.
i should only judge a candle, when its done and ready (I trade daily), and not under development (I?ll pin this at my monitor, too).
I?ll will not jump in the next trade only by having the feeling,
I miss "the big push". Missing something is the first step for greed.
What i need is discipline.
Sounds like you're going to work on all of the right things
Very good!
Just wanted to say I would have posted something, too, but with all the senior PA folks around, just about every setup or advice is already posted before I even saw the question or had a chance to post one myself
You guys are swell
Btw - skimiming through the NYBOT / CTA survey advice text/interactive tutorial, it's come to my attention that basically everything in is almost 1:1 what we've(Jim and many others here) constantly reiterated and emphasized both here as well as "over on J16".
It came of little surprise, but as a pleasant reaffirmation that what we're doing and saying can't be that much bollocks if some of the most successful CTAs say and do the same things.
IMHO there's a reason some stuff always crops up again and it's this: because it works.
And the other described phenomenons of dangers/pitfalls to/weaknesses of beginners as well as the psychological trappings are just as familiar as what I've both lived through as well as observed as well.
Good stuff.
Here's a sample of one the end of chapter quiz question's answers:
"Over 90% of the brokers and traders surveyed say it's important for you to use charts to help determine the price at which to enter and exit the market. They also recommend that you place your stop loss order just beyond support or resistance, depending whether you're long or short.
They add: "If you can't afford to place your stop there, using your money management rules, don't trade that market.""
If you ask me, that sounds like a post straight out of this thread
It has tons more good stuff and most of it just has me nodding, going "yes, yupp, indeed, yea, close 'nuff".
Attached is a pdf file that one of the regular senior members of this thread put together - I'm very sorry I can't recall who it was but I think you'll find it very useful.
Things like these seem nice, but always remember that there is no shortcut.
The bars / formations on their own are only part of the story that the whole chart tells.
Perhaps your post should be directed at Ghous rather than me - he was having troubles with the definitions of certain bar patterns and I gave him the sheet to help - I'm not sure why you felt I needed a reminder about the place of signal bars in a trading method?
Exactly what cluelessbroadband said:
Quote:
I don't think SeekingLight's post was directed at anyone in particular. The post was directed to all newbie's that look into the site for direction, myself included, who sometimes see these charts and start trading live dollars on them thinking it is the key to making multitudes of pips effortlessly!
It's not a dig at anyone(let alone at PA), it's just the truth as I've experienced things. I've seen far too many people, especially those starting, take anything that just fit the 1-2 bar pictures in that PDF, with no regard to anything else(placement, s/r, direction, size, etc pp) and then proclaim it nonfunctional after a few tries.
I think we've all emphasized it before, but it never can be said enough that just recognizing the bar(s) itself is never enough(which is why I've always worded caution against the PA recognition indicators as well, felt like it had the danger of a similiar phenomenon. They might pick out the computer criteria programmed bar, but they won't pick out the good from the bad trades).
I'll go back and edit out the names to make it more apparent that it's a statement not a "dig".
@Jarroo
I'd say that trend and larger timeframe setups can have quite an influence at times as well, but that's more me. Jim doesn't have much respect for the trend for example, he'll just take his pips as they come whereas Mike likes it just as well
I think I FINALLY found something Jim hasn't posted yet
Not as clean/pretty as Jim's yet, but I'm getting better at trying to hold myself back with my creativity
Just some examples as I just discussed this chart recently.
I don't think many words need to be said for this one.
Placement of the marked bars was as always crucial, price had as much room to go as one would expect in basically every move and reactions at the zones are very visible.
The pair is a bit noisy at times, but the important zones stand out. Tradeable despite tight spacing if you know where to look.
Does anyone know an MT4 broker who's daily bars open between 1800GMT - 2200GMT. I need the open/close of daily bars to be when I'm NOT in bed..!!
I live in the UK and I currently use IBFX(0000GMT) and Oanda(0400GMT).
Cheers Snip
Hi Snip,
North Finance(now FXPro I think??) and Windsors close at around 23:00 my time, Germany, which should be 3 hours earlier than IBFX(which closes at 02:00 I think).
What is the best entry point when trading Daily charts? E.g. when you see an Outside Bar on a daily chart (after it closed), do you then zoom into smaller TF to seek a retracement?
..if you wait for a certain retracement (in relation to the OB), it could never happen and you could miss a good move...
I think this has been discussed to death half a dozen times before.
These questions are the revealing ones that show who's been doing their homework and who hasnt
If I remember correctly, discussion of various retracements comes up within the first 1000 posts even ..hummm...
Let me spend 2 minutes with the search function...
*comes back*
There, put in ".382 retracement", got several hits with anything from the last 1000 posts
I personally like retracements, both sometimes "blind" and sometimes must-get-smaller-TF-setup-first. Very discretionary when to do what here. I also have some bars that I prefer to do like Mike on break. As with most things, there's no "one way" nor one perfect one-size-fits-all approach.
--------Oh no, not another rant --------
If I can do this in 5 Minutes, why can't everyone?
It feels like the reason is that it's 10 seconds to write "What about..." rather than 5 Minutes to look closer yourself..
IMHO reading at least the beginning of the thread makes sense.
Or you can "sieve" it by searching through username based posts(will reduce post count by at around half I would bet).
There are many ways, but point being: it does feel a little bit insulting towards those already trying to help 50 people at once to constantly re-ask things many people have answered around a dozen times before.
It's a question of politeness and respect.
Let alone what it says about your seriousness towards your own trading and the diligence of your research, but consider this:
What you're effectively saying is:
"I feel my time is more important than yours. I don't have the time for something as silly as looking myself to get my answers. Why bother? You're around, you do it for me! Here, now answer me this.."
And that's just not cool. (Twoblink has ranted on this very thing before as well and it seems to be basically the same thing all over the forum)
The very people answering you will already HAVE done the very work you're skirting around and having others do for you.
Don't get me wrong - I'll gladly help others and whenever something that shows thought/deeper pondering about something in regards to their trading, I'm all for it and am up for discussing it/giving any and all advice based on my own experience.
What I dislike is when someone feels it's not even worth looking back a few posts or reading the first handful or even spending 2 minutes with the search function.
If you're new, and you've got a question about something established, there's a good chance someone else who has been in the exact same position has already asked it somewhere along the line, and pretty early on, too, usually.
Using the search function, spending 5 Minutes with some keywords and a basic willingness to actually learn what you're trying to make the foundation of your real money trading should be a mandatory event, not an exception.
What really gets me most about it is the disrespect bit. However serious or not about your trading is your thing; but putting yourself above those that you're asking to help you is just not nice.
Many, me included, will still indulge this and invest our time and just repeat the same answers over and again; however there's just going to come a point where you wonder how hard it is to type in the word "retracement" into a search box(perhaps with the advanced option of "filter by author: James16"), where you wonder whether people view public threads and posters as a personalized information service instead of a place where THEY can GATHER, learn and process information to further themselves and THEN engage in an informed discussion.
It's not like I haven't been on the other side before.
I know the problem of feeling like your question's answer is like a needle in a haystack when you see 11.000+ post count and that you'll never find it; but actually trying to will reveal it may just be easier than you thought.
Bottom line: if you really realize a potential and decide on something(this place is filled with things proclaiming to be super duper ultimate final solutions after all, so the first and last thing you should do is settle on something), then wanting to know everything about it as in finding out/reading everything available about it, should be the first normal impulse.
You don't start a mystery novel and after 2 interesting pages turn to the end either, no? The whole point of figuring out the mystery is reading the book, not randomly skipping content and chapters.
-----
Now someone please tell me whether I just slept badly or whether they feel I have a point :P
(I tried to verify the amount of effort required to get the answer to the question so as not to just be "saying something", but to actually know what I'm posting about before I do. And it really was as simple as "box, word, results" and perhaps looking for senior poster names.)
You are right, SeekingLight, I should have done my homework (better). Thank you for guiding me in the right direction and for putting me on the right track.
i think i caught this disease a few days ago and its destroying my R/R to every potential trade .lemme pop some charts to explain .
i think i need treatment .do u guys consider all there ppz b4 trading?
This is what I always tell people who come to me with this problem: go to a higher TF, things are much clearer and cleaner there. On 1h and 4h there are 50 million flips, but the "true" boundaries imho(personal opinion) are outlined on weekly and monthly.
Here's a chart with my current EURUSD example, since Jarroo has been so nice about chart posting to me lately
Waited because I wasn't sure whether to post this, but as it isn't stopping, I have to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aad
Hey, that sounds good though I think most folks tend not to look into journal threads but that could be a good thing I guess, he he..
I think the point/intention of the subtle hint was that it would be more to keep this thread a bit clean and avoid having to scroll past announcements of what some DO to get to those that have something that people ASK or to those where people show something.
I.e. something that could potentially benefit others reading it in turn.
Despite the spirit of sharing here, it's always aimed at sharing knowledge and progressing.
I am not sure(nor was I ever able to see) what the benefit of "just entered this, then took 10% off, now waiting" is to others when they read it, regardless of who posts it and regardless in which thread.
If everyone posted every one of their trades, trade adjustments and deliberations, we wouldn't be at 11k posts, but have a few more zeroes
Shermanator, imho it's starting to border on abusive.
It's not a "pair discussion thread"(in the evil cable thread type of meaning) and I hope it never turns into one of those.
If you like to post your thoughts and ideas so you can reflect back on them, the journal section is ideal for it and I recommend to everyone to keep a journal.
I do.
But if you do it here, it's just disruptive and what's worse, it could encourage others to do the same and then it's just one "me"(as in "I just../I think...") voicing their things after another and the actual substance gets lost / disappears.
is it valid if the 2 peaks in the MACD arenot succesive like in this scenario?
I'm no expert on divergence, but if that's the last swing high, and the new swing high + reversal setup(must not forget the setup) does not manage a new absolute high on the MACD compared to the last swing high's MACD, then I would say that is divergence, as the higher high on price does not match the lower MACD vs the old peak.
I.e. if the new swing high in price will not show an absolute "new swing high" on MACD as well => divergence.
That, at least, is how I know the definition of divergence.
Nice weekly pin, swing high with divergence and ppz. Price needs to break the 2.1200 area.
I've got to ask since I am wondering:
Why did you connect the highs with a TL if you don't know for sure yet it's an established swing high? So far it's lacking at least 1-2 neighboring bars is what I mean. Is it just a visual aid for you or a marker or?
I'm not sure about the PB. It looks really nice shape wise, but agree on s/r coming soon below.
Not exactly rock hard areas established below, but depending on bear enthusiasm plenty of places to use as an excuse :P
Dunno. Not familiar at all with this pair.
Looks like it has potential, but I feel unqualified and my gut is saying "no idea". All these oddball crosses never gave me any joy I must admit.
That aside - to me this is another indicator for my suspicion that the EUR might suddenly go from strongest to weakest link
Hey SL,
I drew the line connecting the high of 2006 and this pin only to illustrate the divergence with the MACD for the corresponding time. Dion
Ah alright, this is what I was wondering about => for visualization.
BTW, to me that nosedive+squeeze looks a lot like what GBPAUD is just beginning to do
You might have a treasure map layout there for the GBPAUD future?
guys what do u think after getting the signal on the daily placing the enteries based on the 4hr chart
I would say stay off of 4h if you haven't mastered the timeframes above it first. And if you already know what you're doing on 4h then the question doesn't present itself anymore, but is already answered by itself.
This isn't addressed to you ezz, but everyone:
It appears people have been jumping on the faster timeframes and then ended up getting burnt and then blaming others or the material(...again. Always occurs again).
IMHO: If you skip the lessons, don't complain when you fail the test.
You don't go to the gym and start with 400 lbs either, do you? You work yourself up to it, gradually.
Actually, I'm thinking more of the incoming news for USD, which are retail and cpi. While on that subject, can I ask how you manage you trade? Let's say you're in a trade based on a 4H or daily signal already, and there are impending big news for that pair. Do you exit before the news or hold through in the hope that the result of the news will confirm the technical signal?
IMHO there's really nothing much to "hope" about.
Rarely are there any news that will countermand what is supposed to happen. If there's a daily setup of a good size and placement, even the news-shove-and-pushers will be hard pressed to negate what's been placed price wise.
And if there was only so-so a chance of success to begin with, you get knocked out.
It's a bit more dangerous if you're on lower timeframes and suffer spread widening though
But what I am saying is - there's moves going on.
I.e. the market "wants to go somewhere" almost all of the time. "News" might jerk the market around at times, but there are only so many events that are capable of instigating a new move / changing the play logic.
Looking at 15+ days of indicator-and-news-spiting (it might have heeded one bit of information to cause the move, but that's about it) drop of AUDUSD should be a good example of how limited power ANY of the lesser forces are(neither news nor indicator crowds had a chance of making their laments morph into a turnaround) versus what price WILL do if it really WANTS to do it.
What are your thoughts on discretionary approach to risk.
Let's take PBs as an example. Risking 1-2% on evry PB doesn't make much sense - after all we have "C" PBs and we have "A++" PBs. Why not increase risk to, say, 5% with "A++" PBs?
Some might say all you're doing with randomizing your risk is randomizing your equity curve and chance of kicking yourself in the groin in the end.
Another way to think about these things:
Any setup you trade should be high enough grade to warrant your normal risk % in the first place, no?
Taking trades that seem so iffy that they're worth less risk in the first place runs risk of feeling a little like "I can't just have ALL winners, I deserve some punishment sometimes".
I mean, what ARE we saying to ourselves when we put money on substandard setups?
IMHO a sound and ideal way of thinking is more: "When I enter a trade, I have made sure I have found as many reasons why it has a good chance to go/work out and therefore I feel good about the risk I take."
Reducing risk is just trying to weasel out of responsibility for the trade(= our own decision!) due to it being "smaller risk so it doesn't really matter".
IMHO we(explicitly me included) play these mind tricks on ourselves ALL THE TIME.
Just my opinion of course, I could be wrong(and I know that many disagree).
GBPCHF.
I know this will show up completely different on other brokers due to the Sunday start, but just taking this chart for what it is it makes sense. Or at least it did to me last night.
IB then BEOB/DBHLC combo, with a retrace to the small PPZ(2) inside of that upper congestion area. Also weak MACD.
You could also have viewed this as a bigger inside bar like windup formation(it actually was on weekly) up there, with the lower s/r boundary marked with (1) being it's low and breaking point for entry. There was support below, both from prior highs as well as the TL, but after being confined to such tight space for such a long period, I assume price just really wanted to go somewhere, and it did.
Waiting to see whether we lose 2.0 just as swiftly as GJ lost 209.
In the case of this chart the blue giant swabs are more "look out" areas than precision spots, and the marked in actual horizontals are places I respect a bit more(as they should be from monthly IIRC). Looking over it the blue swabs probably obscure more than they help. If I can't find too many good spots to place s/r, then I doubt others can, either, which in my mind just encourages more smash through like behaviour eventually. If you can't concentrate orders in a clearly visible spot, then it's harder to hit price with it would be my reasoning.
P.S. Seems MT4 once more skewed the upper TL between closing/opening it, it was supposed to connect originally. The magic of free software.
It's been a while since I've been here but hope that Jim and all you guys are doing well.
Some big moves lately in the majors. I feel that Cable may present a good buying opportunity in the region of 1.8500 - 1.8600. I'll wait and see what the PA shows.
Tom
Sup Wiz
How's it going?
Doing alright, hope same for you.
As for cable - until EURGBP peaks(still has a new high to make in my logic) you can guess what scenarios and trades I'll prefer
I'm glad Seeking added his view too. ...Mine's never conservative enough.
I noticed!
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I don't totally agree about randomising the equity curve, though, Seeks.
Well if you vary risk, then you vary risk :P
I was just trying to reflect something Fiji-like
It's not that I don't think there are "hotter" trades than others, but
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It can if done inappropriately, of course, but I find it very powerful using chosen risk percentages in certain situations.
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you can do this with a simple trick as well. I just have started up a seperate subaccount for "dead certain surefire trades" to see how things would pan out if I used more risk on a smaller amount on better trades, and try to keep risk constant there as well.
This way my mainstay account remains seperate and when I feel I got a hot one, I can use normal risk on the normal account and go for it on the other one
I'm not saying you can't vary risk after knowing your trading intimately after how many years for you now? That many years.
I'm saying that initially the safest thing you can ever do is not trying to know what the market will or won't do THIS time around and simply treat each and every trade alike risk wise, that way ensuring the MM makes sense in the first place. That, at least, is how I've understood what I've read about it
Otherwise you'll simply create "tears" (as in rips, not as in saltwater eyes, although both could happen ) if you misjudge.
this is actually a good strategy provided that you keep closing some positions too
One could challenge that and say:
If you add positions and then go to close positions(i.e. not all at once), where's the point in having opened additional ones in the first place?
I.e. where's the net effect that makes it superior in returns vs the guy that only enters once, but rides the whole position to the same finishing point?
If you enter at say half the size and add on even to at some point reach 1.5 times the size of the other guy trading full position to the end, you still have a good chance of ending up with less real profit than the other guy simply because the average price moved(as not all entries move equally far) per average size isn't superior due to all the scaling in and out(pick some random numbers and play some scenarios through, you'll see what kind of increase in size you'd need just to "catch up" with a normal sized all-or-nothing approach).
But as said - imho this runs big risk of getting far too far off topic and is big enough a subject to even start it's own thread on. Opinions on this do differ wildly, just as trading styles do.
It's something everyone needs to find their own comfort with as for some it's more a psychological helper than a profit optimization, for some it's simply what's worked for them, etc pp. There might be an ideal on paper, but there isn't a one size fits all for trading/traders. Approaches vary.
I find it amusing that the fundies have all aligned with price action (Euro/UK recession concerns, Aussie/Kiwi rate drop). PA did however show the way first.
Seeking should be happy with this one
I could actually be nice to the fundies and say they've been saying GBPUSD is going down a few hundred pips before it rose up first already I think they've been saying it for the last 12+ months or something(makes it easier to be right eventually if you just stick to one story ad nauseam).
I've also read about how the eurozone can't escape all of this and is going to get hit as well, yadda yadda, but what good is all that BS if they say it for 5 months and there are 50 million chart points at which there's a trade the other way first in the meantime. You need a trade, not an opinion as a trader.
Or similarly, I've first read that Australia is THE shnizzletizzle for ages and that trading it up to 1.0 is going to be this years supertrade and "gift" to traders, and here we are with the biggest linear pip destruction on this child of stars.
Bottom line is - no matter how "right" or "wrong" the fundies are, bottom line is they are useless for a CONCRETE, TRADEABLE trade entry, exit. Only the chart can supply us with trades because our brokers only accept the prices that move on there, not in the headlines and texts of the fundies.
--
I also wanted to add a few words about the failed PB discussion. I actually brought this up over at J16 as well since some people felt this was a perfectly fine trade whereas I myself skipped it.
This is my personal conclusion I came to:
Regardless what you did, whether you took or you skipped it, everyone needs to realize this: as long as you have a set of rules that have proven(this is why everyone keeps and keeps on banging on about demo) to give you a net profit and you have done everything to follow them, ANYTHING ELSE IS IRRELEVANT.
It is utterly futile trying to eliminate losses. It is usually just as pointless trying to figure out why or not something failed THIS time, IF you have been sure to take everything into account you always do. Sure there are things one overlooks and we're all human, but we have to cut ourselves some slack at some point, too.
Sometimes things just do not pan out, that's what you profit buffer is for and why we don't risk 100% on every trade.
Trying to eliminate losses from trading is like trying to eliminate the ball from soccer :P
I can understand the need to learn and discuss the times when there are obvious things one missed in order to know in the future, but there arethose times when even if you do everything right things blow out. It's just how it goes. There is no ultimate filter(except for not trading at all, 100% loss filter, only problem being it also eliminates 100% wins, too) and there is no lossless trading. We can control risk and try to do so with our emotions, but control the market itself we cannot.
My opinion. This comes from my approach to trading, others have a COMPLETELY different attitude and approach towards this altogether, and that's fine, too.
Hey there Seeking
How do you prove a discretionary trading system works?
cheers
fxp
Hey FXP
I'll interpret this as a "how do I know when something works(for me)" question.
If it's meant in a general manner from the outside: you see if you can understand the logic presented, try and apply it yourself, compare with the original idea and see if it fits or not. This is also where you'll figure out whether you're made for it or not.
In a concrete, "inside" manner of trading it yourself: you have a ruleset, you lay out trading plans, have a game plan i.e. trade management and exit criteria. If you don't have a stringent before-during-after, you WILL end up just afloat in a big ocean of randomness.
You will know this works or rather establish this works in the very period everyone is still banging on about...the demo phase. After laying your groundwork and testing it in a live environment consistently and repeatedly, you figure out whether you know what you're doing or not and, most importantly, imho, you find out WHY it works.
I know why what I do has a good chance of "working" and that's all the proof in the world I need.
Obviously there's also proof in returned(positive) %, but that's not the soothing bit. The soothing bit is having understood something about the market and trading.
I know that some or even a lot of people will just not accept this and dismiss this type of "talk" as "blabber".
IMHO I couldn't write anything more true(the knowing / reasons / understanding bit) about what I've found out for myself.
I can't speak for others.
when big volume is being traded price moves wuicker indicated by larger volume bars on your mt4, so when a pin bar moves vigourously here and there before closing as a pin it may be a good indication of it's healthy nature...
I don't know why everyone is always looking for extra crutches.
IMHO we already have all we need.
Some might try to turn it as an item of "confluence"(fine by me on indices and stocks maybe, but I don't see the lack of edge as early as commodities and even less so in FX), but what on earth is wrong with plain size?
If you get moves of an average daily bar of 200-300 pips and then a pin bar of 150, how strong is the PB vs the momentum?
At the very least, the most basic item of information that bar is giving you is: it's smaller than most of the others.
And if you get a big-un' blowout bar that's 50% over normal ATR forming the PB/BUOB/whichever, then that in turn is going to just be VISIBLE.
Why do I need to know what exchange traded how many contracts to form it if can just look?
We've all gone over the "long nose, level eyes" mantra so many times we should be in more than deep meditation now.
Of COURSE there are small pins that also work, just as there are also pins that are with crooked closes that work etc pp. And one can argue solid s/r levels from here to Sunday.
But whatever is jumping out at you on the chart or not is all in what you perceive and then choose to take.
This just goes round in circles to "figure out what you're doing and why" first.
I've tried to explain that there's a point where we run out of things we can blame(including ourselves) and have to just accept that we're not trading an ideal but reality. And the simple reality is that there is only so much we can do before "going for it" and then it's up to the market.
IMHO:
If you want a more certain ending point to a trend, why not wait for the timeframe some of the "big traders"(the ones with the giant footsteps and whatnot) always tossed around in references supposedly prefer to look at?
Weekly bars.
USDCAD, USDJPY, USDCHF and EURGBP just off the top of my head started IMMENSE runs off of weekly pin bars(and I think almost each one was posted here, too). Talking 4 digits in pips.
The current situation is a perfect example for an environment that warrants waiting for something that tells just about anyone looking at the market that something's changed. As I wrote - I believe there may just be some (large) market participants who most likely don't even look any lower than weekly.
Sometimes it feels like people just think it's a joke when the higher timeframes are mentioned, as if that were intended to keep people bored or away from "fast money".
The opposite is true.
There's no bigger clarity than on a weekly chart and there's a very good reason the EURUSD progression charts I posted were charted with weekly bars in turn.
And Jim isn't having a laugh when he says practice on weekly first.
---
Quite frankly, I find all of this to and fro completely exhausting. Especially because I don't see the point.
I refer to my last 1-2 posts regarding losses: it's just plain normal to me to see failed trades occur. What's the biggie?
IMHO you must accept the loss the second you placed the trade, or you have no business placing it in the first place.
The usual "my opinion only, not wisdom sent from the gods" disclaimer applies.
Getting by, there's good days and bad, you know how it is :P
But when my bones crackle and my back is acting up, oi vay!
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Sorry don't quite follow you here.
I meant that if you encounter something you feel that might suit you, you go and read up on it. Then try and figure out why the thing in front of you is doing what it's doing. What logic it's based on, why it seems to have a positive expectancy for example. Basically, you wonder whether you understand what makes it work. That's all nice theory. Then comes the pertinent bit, actually trying to make what sounded so logic and simple yourself. You will undoubtedly come across things that you might end up doing differently than what was shown to you, or just plain do it wrong, or hesitate, etc. You might even come across situations you felt were suddenly different than in the theoretical ideal.
It's at this point where you realize that you need to make sure whether you really REALLY understood the material first and go back and re-check, maybe ask some questions and then try again, or whether you feel that either you're too unsuited for it or the approach is just plain flawed and only meant for situation x.
If you do decide that it was just lack of practice and awareness, you try again, and cycle this procedure over, until you find it fits like a glove or you decide again. If it fits, you stick with it and once you're set(plan, practice, profit, the three Ps), you go live.
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So, if we do say 1 year on demo and take only the best bars we could be working on an assumption that the +-50 trades we have taken are indicative of typical market action.
I don't think the trades are indicative of typical market action. Even the market isn't always indicative of "typical" market action. But if you've looked into what goes on long enough, you grasp enough of the basic mechanisms to see what's what. And then it no longer matters whether moves suddenly are overproportionally big or small or whether they're more rapid than before, you manage to see that some basic things always, always remain.
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Add another 3 years live trading you have maybe +-300 trades (if picking the best setups) to draw our experience from. Are you saying this is proof that this form of discretionary trading works in the long term?
No, I think it's proof that it's worked up to that point and just like you slip, trip and fall off of a tightrope the second you stop paying attention, so can you slip up in your trading as if on your first day at any point in time.
1 day of profitable trading proves that discretionary trading works for 1 day.
2 days of profitable trading prove that discretionary trading works for 2 days.
3 days of profitable trading prove that discretionary trading works for 2 days.
And so on. You only get certainty up to the point of "now" in life.
That's how it is for trading, that's how it is for everythin in life. Do you know your wife will love you the next 10 years if she's loved you 2? 3? 5? Even tomorrow's sunrise isn't certain; it's just a connection we've made in our mind, but it is not preordained.
IMHO there is no will or won't in our reality, there's only our attitude towards what comes and our flexibility to adapt. We're human and we and our surroundings change every nanosecond.
Our uncertain but always possible death is part of this concept just as much.
Bottom line for me is that how soon we decide that we believe in our trading and ourself, that's up to each one of us. We can get hints and tips and opinions about anything in life from others, but it's US that need to do the deciding and enacting in the end. We can hear 3 months or 3 years(and getting sound advice from solid experience in any matter always helps in life), but it isn't until everyone has found their own comfort zone that he or she will be able to move on either way, regardless of what is said.
p.s. IMO reviewing a trade after-the-fact is invaluable. simply proclaiming "it was a failed pin" and dismissing eveything said as "futile" rather than trying to figure out whether or not that is the truth
[..] is not smart business. frankly, i learn more from my losses than my gains
I just wanted to make sure that it's understood I don't want to encourage not learning from your losses.
It's obsessing over losses and trying to eliminate them altogether that leads to psychological pitfalls(some people grow afraid to even place a trade anymore because they don't trust themselves anymore, even if it wasn't their fault and they did everything right) that I tried to point out in order to avoid them.
At some point you will ideally have all your examining done, your rules down, your plan laid out. And then there is no longer going to be too deep an analysis past "fit criteria x, y, and z, yepp, can't do more than this" and moving on, unemotionally, unencumbered, to the next trade.
Even discretion can become more "automated". (Mind, I said this is an "ideal", not as simple as shooting fish in a barrel )
Hi again guys,
so here is my theory of momentum,
note however that i am not going to go too much into detail
Understatement of the year
IMHO you can make it a lot simpler(although I have equally disturbed levels of complexity, no worries, main thing is that it does something for YOU):
1. If price doesn't have anything in it's path that would cause it to stop, it won't(like in physics).
2. If price doesn't say it wants to go elsewhere loudly enough, it likely won't be heard over the general noise (compare the EURUSD and GBPUSD pins and their surrounding bars vs NZDUSD's situation).
All this discussion has me wondering what people believe is the hardest thing to pick up about the J16 method.
More of an adaptable system really.
We'll see why in a second :P
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The methods are fairly simple. Watch and read the bars. Find PPZ's and certain other S/R levels. Determine market direction. Find confluence.
"ok I understand all I mentioned above, what is the next thing I'm going to learn when demo'ing this for 2-3 months?"
Well let's see, you've picked out a lot of good criteria on how to ENTER the market...what's that other bit we need to do afterwards? :P
Another piece of a simple answer is what you already said.
You can assume you're perfect after getting it right 3-4 times in a row, or, you can see whether you remain doing well for at least a more moderate amount of time.
It's a bit like wondering what the next month will be like before it happens. I would have no idea. No month is the same.
Although with that logic one could just as easily argue you should demo a lifetime first in order to've seen it all, so I'd say 3 months is a fair compromise between having seen something to begin with, and not knowing what to expect at all
And the above is just the theoretical side of it.
In practice you need to be able to see whether the "it sounds as simple as 1-2-3" theory on paper is as simple to cope with emotionally and practically once you see the numbers tally up and down on your screen as well.
Misinterpreation, temptation to overstake, close out too soon, hash around, etc pp. Some may dismiss this, with a "Hah, that would never happen to me", and some might psychology the worst sticking point they will encounter.
3 months is just a rough "more than 5 minutes, but less than a lifetime" guideline if you ask me(as in more practice will most likely not hurt), but I doubt many go "from zero to hero" in 12 weeks either way
And to come back to the opening words - the question is how you want to piece it all together into one whole "something I can trade" approach for yourself. This varies strongly from person to person imho, and it's during this time that you'll be able to play with whatever idea without damaging anything for real.
But sure, if you've traded for x years already and feel this is just a final piece, you may just adapt to it a lot faster etc..but one needs to start with something, no?
My point is, the J16 method isn't very difficult to understand.
It sounds to me like the 3 month demo period is more about getting the emotions under check primarily, cleaning up your skills in reading a chart with J16 methods, and getting used to the speed that the market produces signals.
I would hope not(difficult).
Maybe think of it like this:
I can "understand" instruments and scales, too, it's the actually playing coherent on beat music with the instrument handed to me that's the tough part when I do hold it/sit in front of it if it's the first time with it..
There are geniuses and highly adept people in every area of life, undoubtedly. But for the rest, it's usually a matter of learning and practice =)
Very good analogy, although I would have to say I'm sure a lot more people understand the importance of price bouncing off of an MA line, fib, s/r, on a chart versus asking them to understand how to play 32nd notes over 2 bars with flams on the 8th and 16th notes that crescendo into a double paradiddle in the 3rd measure.
My above stab at trying to sound like I know how to play the drums
It's funny, because a friend of mine was a drummer in the school's marching band and actually had to learn those...I only play the drums (as in complete drumkit) a bit on the side and lately very sparingly, and boy, let me tell you, I'd rather attempt to trade pins than learn how to do wandering accents on the snare ;P
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Eventually people will tweak the method to their own goals and sense of trading style.
Agree, that's part of what I meant in the last post, too
And that's also what's so cool about it. (Beachbum+Fozzy+PA was an example in this regard(also had him around in the thread for a while), off the top of my head)
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IMO, learning the J16 method and trading it successfully, assuming your MM is in check to keep emotions down, is a very achievable task. I wouldn't be surprised if some people are profitable from Day 1 and it's just a matter of cleaning things up over time.
I don't doubt this is POSSIBLE(just as much as the other extreme can exist), I just haven't seen it happen for a majority of people yet. But sure, why not. It's an ideal.
Some will identify a lot more and quicker than others. This is why there's always so much emphasis on the inter-individual differences.
I don't think we're in much of a disagreement about all of these things
A newbie question now: does it could be safer wait for the next day candle and see if it close above the "pin one"?
Some pins can ideally catapult price back up as much as the bar before it moved down in the next bar.
So if you skip the setup itself, well, then you're skipping the setup.
Hoping to get additional confirmation by waiting is just another way of saying "I'm too scared to take the trade in the first place". If there aren't enough good reasons to take it, skip it. If something suits your criteria and you can't find anything wrong, take it. What will come will come.
If >100 pips are already "too big", then you most likely have a problem with sizing due to your broker / account type(if it's because risk would grow too big - if it's because you feel it would make too little profit then the account size itself might be too small).
I would remedy that before anything else lest it impede your trading.
I've kicked out the "buy my book" posts and I would like to ask those that have quoted him to edit their posts accordingly.
Whether Pring is really Pring remains to be seen.
Also credit was given to Pring at the very start of this thread, including IIRC with a positive recommendation of his work. So even if genuine, this is a bit over the top / unprofessional behavior. It sounds like Microsoft trying to patent the double click if you're claiming to patent the pin bar, which, as a dragonfly doji, hammer, etc pp in various varations and use has been around 400+ years.
So it seems to me that an impersonation by a troll is much, much more likely and I moderated the two "worst" posts accordingly. I am waiting for Twee to investigate the rest.
Maybe logging the IP of the person who registered as him and then forwarding it to the real Pring just in case might help settle this as well. I am sure people would really like to know if their name is being abused and their identitiy impersonated.
Especially if a "name" and positive reputation is at stake.
Some of you mentioned - as an option - entering a PB at 61.8 retracement. How do you draw Fibo in that case: from the top of the PB to its bottom or vice versa (see the enclosed charts)?
If the price does not retrace that much at all, do you then enter right away after the smaller retracement reversed?
You draw the fib from the bottom of the bar to the top of the bar in question(regardless of BUOB or PB). This puts 100% at the bottom(160.15) and .618 roughly at 160.95 on IBFX for example.
You should decide how you handle your entry beforehand and if you don't get a retrace entry, you can always place the normal "on break" entry above the bar + spread + yourchoiceofpipsbuffer. Just be careful you don't trigger both and double your risk inadvertently.
Other things such as s/r and "eye levels" can come into play as well however, so it's not just all about fibs imho.
I don't see it. But I can see us being under a strong resistance line(=>attached updated EURUSD chart, same one I posted before) which would have been a good place to take some profit.
IMHO betard's 1.44 area with the TL and then 1.43/1.425 is the next place I can see, but there's really nothing "big" until 1.34-1.35ish, more at around 1.29-1.3.
But that's looking at monthly =)
1.4350 is most likely a "must reach" target near term.
All of this is just wild speculation on my behalf, but it fits really well with the general idea of "a trend tends to go on further than anyone would expect of it".
And so far the moves have been "trending", even if we're not past all TLs on all pairs yet to technically term it / justify calling it a change of trend on the USD. All I know is the direction has changed to pro-USD, and if that persists, then it will by itself turn into a trend.
Personally I hope there will still be a larger bounce coming at some point, if only to give an opportunity for the other side to have a go, and for those still secretly bullish USD folks to get a new shot at a better entry - if they can find one.
1.49 looks like a good flip/decision point here for either side.
this is the trendline i was referring to, had this trendline not been there all of the stuf you posted was valid, but this TL seems to be a nice source of support, atleast uptill now...but i agree though that there is strong res too...
It's a top connecting trendline. The only use they have for me is on retest directly after the break before the takeoff.
Once price has taken off and comes back, they become insignificant to me.
Why would they be relevant for (longer term)support if they weren't a support line to begin with?
From everything I know and have seen, buying is structured about low connecting trendlines.
Find me one, on any pair, that didn't eventually break again once price came back after a longer excursion
It's one thing if these coincide with real s/r lines or other items, but as a valid trendline trade I wouldn't put much faith in it under the described setting.
Then why exactly is it true that a supporting horizontal line can well provide resistance?
You can't argue reasons for one type of technical tool to justify another type.
Horizontal S/R works simply because that's how market structure gets built. You needn't look further than a single day for x amount of examples.
Demand/supply lines work, because that's how they work. As I've tried to outline, if there's a REAL buyer TL, why would you suddenly start using a former SELL line, that has no history whatsoever supporting price long term. It makes no sense to me at all.
The s/r flip for TLs occurs at the point of "passage" imho and sometimes the next couple of bars, and that's then it.
Quote:
as i see it any line that can provide res or support is eually good to be used for either,
IMHO TLs work in the manner described, while s/r works as s/r.
Quote:
There are a million examples where it can easily be concluded that support lines can provide resistance equally well...
If TLs are meant: I fail to know/see any examples for this type of behavior as described.
The functionality of flipped resistance TLs as real turning points a second time after they've been retested and left behind is just an allegation until you can show me that they're valid turning points for price in real world examples - after it's taken off for a longer period of time and come back - and not just bounces. And by turning points I mean real swingpoints.
But since this is all getting confrontational - anyone is free to believe what they want. I am going to stop arguing something I feel I have a valid reason for believing. I've stopped giving these "left behind, flipped" lines much importance after seeing them simply getting pushed out of the way basically every time.
Therefore I will continue to believe what I believe until I see reproduceable, repeatable and functional proof of a different type of behavior.
IMHO the trick is to find items of interest that have a turning around potential on the chart rather than smaller obstructions, and these type of TLs just do not qualify as such in my book.
I choose so because I've found reasons for it in the past - not out of spite or for sake of argument.
If someone can show and convince me otherwise with according background and proof, then sure, by all means. Until then I have to stick with what I feel is right.
I don't know why it's behaving differently from other currencies right now but I don't care lol.
EURCAD weekly PB 2 weeks ago triggered and moved around 500 pips lower. Part of it will more push down EURUSD at times, part of it may come from more USDCAD lower emphasis. Usually it's the crosses that mess around with the others. AUDNZD moving lower with NZDUSD PB and AUDUSD getting hurt is another such example.
It's one thing if these coincide with real s/r lines or other items //
I am going to stop arguing something I feel I have a valid reason for believing.
Recent example to contrast with all the other PBs we've seen around recently.
See how the space before the PB is a lot cleaner and there aren't 50 bars next to it keeping it company, trying to bum some pip power off of it. :P
See how the first stalling was at the prior bar's low, the next stalling at the larger marked underside area(which is where a conservative target would have been imho).
Some items can be simple and obvious, but it means skipping 99% of the bad setups in turn, which most simply are reluctant to do(otherwise we'd probably have 1-2 posts a day vs 20 a day :P).
One of the biggest problems usually is that people want or feel the need to trade(especially when they've just experienced a drawdown).
Asking yourself honestly whether you suffer from this could end up being the best "filter" for your trading.
I've heard it a lot as an issue and know it from myself, too("the need to be in")
the weekly pin I presume? (Ed: NZDUSD)
I wouldn't have entered against the pivot zone it sat on. ( I don't think . Easy to say that now. )
You 'd need the opinion of someone who's planned it out on that one. Anyone??
Anyway, if you've stuck it out on the time frame you entered on you would probably have taken some profit with the stop on the remaining STILL sitting below the pin. That's if you're trading the weekly chart on that trade, (with the appropriate position size, of course)
I know that someone on the J16 site aimed for just around the 0.7200+ area, so I assume it got there okay for him.
Others who take a more longer term approach would probably have done it like you described bundy, although I'd prolly be more shy to take profit so soon.
There were also some folks who flat out refused to take a long and were looking for a daily BEOB instead(which later on actually showed up). I expect/hope that worked out for them.
So there's always several plans of action..in this case 2 out of 3 would have been able to make either money(shooting for .72 or the D-BEOB) or not lose any(stop to b/e at the .72 area) and the jury is still out on the third "stop below PB and wait" option. Since we just had a stubby daily PB that triggered, perhaps that option may just "go" as well. (Which would mean 3 goes at the same thing in 3 variations = 3 wins....not a bad time for the "trading system" at all...the question isn't just what appears, but what you make of it that's crucial...which is what's both good and bad about discretionary trading and where experience makes so much difference)
I do agree with FXProcessor though, if you want to be in for the "main move", moving your stops too soon WILL kick you out of trades. But you need to be aware that in turn you obviously need to be right about your bar being a swingpoint as well - which emphasizes once more the importance of good vs bad setups, as the good ones WILL go long enough to enable eventual stop movement.
There wasn't really any great setup here(only a bit cloggy sideway 4h BUOB and an even messier IB), but I felt it was a good example of a "place to look for action at".
There was horizontal s/r that was to be retested after moving above it at 1.0450. We got back there after moving above THE long term TL.
There was both a prior rising TL underside(although long invalid) and a more irrelevant "middle of something or other" TL that could both be construed as reasons for capping us around 1.073 originally, but there are quite simply also daily highs in that kind of area when we look further to the left(June/July 2007) on the chart.
This shows well how you can "create" reasons for why price was deflected at 1.0730(at least 2 trendlines, I'm sure one can "find" many more), but regardless of the upside cap, to me there was really only ONE important TL and s/r area here, and that was the really long term TL and the 1.0450 s/r area for retesting.
We didn't get anything nice like I had hoped for and the first attempt of getting back up got beaten back down at the usual spots, but we did hold it and eventually moved back off.
IMHO this pair still has some higher targets to hit yet and the move above the TL pretty much eliminates a clear cut bearishness.
More than getting a perfect setup, I feel it's important to get to know those "right spots" to look for PA in the first place. It sometimes feels to me like people chase every single bar that forms on their chart for a setup, but really imho there are only a handful of really crucial, interesting areas that will come around and present an area of interest, with the potential to kick off the next swing.
To me, personally, finding and figuring out these swingpoints is the most interesting thing I can find. PA at areas of interest is where it's at imho.
I jotted some of this down, looks interesting in a chapter sort of way..
I really liked Jim's charts and I have to agree with Mike on that one trafficked GBPUSD PB, it was really a breakout-retest play. I charted it when it occured as well and saw the TL underside, seeing it "naked" I'd go eww, that was, like, sideways. Perspective can make so much of a difference.
I just made a video about how trading any given moment is more about the general situation things are in rather than just the bar and I think this is related to what caused FXP so much frustration.
Either way, just wanted to say that if anyone thinks this thread or stuff around is promotion for the site: if it were, you'd get around 99% less info. As it stands, the pure information is basically handed out for free here.
It's more about more in depth / direct acces / support / feedback / community / the odd trick here and there / integration type of thing more than superduper hideout secrets of the amazon, insiders only type of thing.
I know this has been pointed out before, but I just wanted to say this again as it's always a bit shocking to me how it still works to draw people despite basically already disclosing everything publically. It makes me realize that there's more to learning than just the "book" you're supposed to read for class and that the actual confrontation with "classroom and teacher" and whole "school community" may have a lot more to do with it than the actual material.
It fits in quite well with this that I'm noticing just how much value there is in a direct feedback for those people who do struggle, as not everyone manages the x thousand pip runs right off the bat
Something you might have taken for granted may turn out to be just what they needed to hear to give them that thing to break them on through to the next point, or the simple "investing in yourself to show yourself what you really want" may more than anything be what makes it worth it.
Anyhow, I'm still a bit woozy in the head, so dunno if I am making too much sense.
Btw, ryan, I read the live trade challenge, and although I try my best to keep my journal on J16 a bit like a "running commentary" and ponder weekly plans for the week on Sundays, I'm not sure I would want to do it publically. I've considered it(a thread with just setup + chart / result + chart), but I really don't like the kind of being that public forums usually are..every winner leads to cheerleading and "took your trade, made x thousand dollars, thanks!!!!!" and every single loss "proves it doesn't work"...just deeply troubling or potentially upsetting either way.
I try my best to chart out weekly "paths" beforehand when I see big scenarios coming up(like EURUSD, GBPUSD, EG, GJ, GC etc) and try to follow up on them in a chronology, just to show that they do / did fill out and I'm not making it up afterwards as I go along. The posted EURUSD(the weekly fall), EURGBP(rise in steps) and GBPCHF(daily/weekly topping out and fall) for example were all stuff that I tried to chronicle as they occured, but most of that happens "over there" and not in this thread. I snap the charts though to show that the idea was there before / as it happened, and not "put on after".
I'm always worried about the "others following blindly" stuff or influencing folks. What would Hipster say for example if I told him I was currently mostly bearish on EURGBP! He'd cry, for sure!
Btw, Ryan twice already pointed out what others and I have been trying to say several times as well, and this blends in with the situation comment up there: be aware that going WITH the main move after a retrace e.g. makes it MUCH more sexy for your setups rather than trying to stem the tide with a less than super ideal bar. I usually try going with things after turning points, but that also means I have to figure out where those are likely to be as well. Mike does it with breakouts, Ryan on the 5m, we all have our ways, but we also all have an idea what to look out for and what the situation is.
Anyhow. Here's some chaptering, and I'll see whether I've got anything useful to post chart wise the next few days. So much unidirectional moves make for little stuff to trade/do once you're "in".
Tried to find the "hug" smiley, but it seems that's the one they DIDN'T include.
Just goes to shows my theories about pub forums being more about confrontation than love weren't that far off!
(It has "boxing", "sick", "devil" and "chicken" instead!)
Should add that the point was/is I can be just as wrong as the next guy, and sometimes just keeping something to yourself is better because it doesn't run risk of influencing those who think they couldn't possible be more right in estimating a situation than someone else. Everything is speculation; it's making the most out of those times you ARE right that's crucial imho.
Man you guys are far too active here, had to read up over 200 posts again :P
If anyone asks me, Vulcan-archi = Fibbin-archi.
I still wonder where that perverse joy comes from that people seem to take from doubting EVERYTHING. I'm all for exposing frauds and shills, but uhm...okay here's how I see it:
These cries for statements are supposed to give some sort of credibility to a method. But even if they're supplied - does that take one inch of the problem that THE OTHER GUY/GIRL can do it, but YOU still have to learn how to?
No!
You're still stuck at square one but now have one more guy to envy for his pocketbook. Great, what an achievement that just was.
If you ask me - you know what gives a method credibility? Research. Being a trader means being able to understand(!) what makes a trade work and what does not. Once this has dawned on you, you no longer ask for statements, but simply for functional details, because you already know what it is you're looking for and whether or not this is something you may want to integrate into your trading.
After that it's just self-application and practice and that's that.
Look at Jeff - obviously it's a lot simpler to just TRY than to spend x posts refuting, fussing, discrediting.
Who'd have thought.
The market functions in repeatable patterns and mechanics, and functional approaches will most of the time have common elements you can recognize. Period.
Why some folks(and we have at least 3-4 big time "skeptics" on this forum that I know of alone that seem to LIVE for doing it) have to bang EVERYTHING down I don't know. If they do it in the "50 indicators on chart + buy the Gold edition of the indicator" and "turn over 1000$ a day!!!!!" threads I understand 100% - why they do it with folks who obviously have a clue, I don't.
All they stand to gain is the above situation - either more reason for envy/jealousy/confirmation that, indeed, there are people in the world that can make money trading - what news that is - or more "proof" for them to stay in their disbelief shell of "everyone is just a fraud on the internet and nothing works" (also quite a novel thing, that, internet and fraud..).
What a sucky life perspective THAT is. I'd rather live with hope and perspective than doubt and fear that everyone is out to fool me..make the best of what IS out there, looking for function rather than trying to look for dysfunction.
Mind, it's the attitude/perspective I'm criticizing, not the attempt to expose per se. I'm all for that and have done my own share of rabid doubting :P
Some of which I'm still a bit ashamed of actually as it was far too overzealous when it happened.
I just think it's a waste of time disputing something folks have done for 400+ years(candlestick trading) and as has been so aptly said by many here now - if you don't like it, just don't do it.
Now that's out of the way, I'll post some stuff I've got lying around..some of it is a bit dirty as it's basically stuff I only wanted to post in my journal, but since one of the things we always hear is nobody posts things ahead of time or as they happen, I think these are some okay examples that it IS possible to actually think a few pips "ahead" and actually have it happen, too.
EURAUD progression - this has been posted in parts 1+2 a while back, just wanted to show what happened at/after 1.68 to illustrate how simple market logic can be those times it does obey
DJI futures. Posted "live" to my journal. I do not have futures/stocks yet, but just opened an account with a broker for that. I tried to demo take it, but it seems trading was already disabled since I was still using the old futures contract. Didn't realize that until now :P
Either way, this is a trade I would have taken and Jim commented on before as well - 1h PB with massive divergence at the very low, and in this case after a wedge out imho.
My initial target/limit was just below 11000, it ended up hitting almost at 11500 right now. 190 stop, 580+ moved at the moment.
I'd love to have a peek, too, Ryan
(Can't get enough examples of what you consider good / working entries to see how you see it)
If you've got the time, would you please also just attach your .tpl (template) for the EURUSD chart with which you trade the stuff?
Just makes for swifter reproduction here and I'm such a lazy bone in that regard :P
If not I'll try and piece it together from the previous posts, I wrote down the BB and MA settings somewhere.
Again it's my job, why am I posting at 7:20pm EST when I just got back from the lake?
Because I love what I do [..]
To learn more and get better and find other way to do things.
you took ***0*** time to read anything and now I am full of it. Best of luck you will need it.
Think about this, how many Doctors or people that are in the TOP 1% of ANY field sit around and blow money they made? How many still talk with others about how to make things better or better ways to do things? What about Buffett why does he live in the same house after making BILLIONS why is he not in a 5 star hotel drinking away his worth?
the money does not change everything.
to me you can NEVER be too good at something
SO MANY people are jaded because they think you cant make money in this. I tell ya they are wrong but after losing for so long they just think if they cant do it no one can.
If you think everything that is posted is bullshit please just STOP trading, [..] dont spend the rest of your life looking for a system that is not out there and not looking at price.
I feel a bit silly applauding a TFT screen, but you've basically said all the things I'd sign in a heartbeat and can only sympathize with deeply. The above lines of thinking for some reason doesn't make sense to many people, but to me it 100% does. I just wanted to thank you for being someone that reflects how I think / feel back at me again.
It boths needs to be said and has been said several times before, but it's no less pertinent or important because of it.
Huh? What? Who? Where? When?
What?
Or was that another SL? :P
Since indices and stuff was discussed, I feel now would be a good time to mention that I agree with Igrok's view of 7500 and worse coming for the DJI. This current rally(if there is one to develop out of this rejection so far) might lend one of the last great short opportunities across the board(as in these meltdowns all pairs synch up anyhow).
Here's what I posted to the now dissolved 1kT "Wall Street thread" and the latest update to how my progression turned out.
If there were any liquid investment banks left I'd tell them to hire me NOW ;p
Hehehe..
*waves to Benssol* Cool charts, nice to see you around
I haven't read up the last x hundred posts yet, so I don't know if these will be dupes or not, but I felt these were some okay examples of some market mechanics, so I'm going to post a mixed bag of PA examples and "predictable ideas"...the latter really only to annoy those that think it isn't possible to think ahead in the FX market :P
Another EURCHF update, and the latest GBPCHF example:
This progression is that "yea, one really never knows what's coming" progression. IMHO this is pretty much what Mike does, just including a bit more safety with retests and stuff.
Breakouts / TL combos, with textbook outcomes each time. This is a great example(despite it having a ton of delay and struggle on the way) of how these corrective moves sometimes progress, so I'm posting it:
(None of these are edited and were posted to my journal "along the way")
Was thinking about PMing you the past couple of days to see where you'd got lost.
I've been around, I check my PMs, but I don't have too much spare time left at the moment for posting here too much, most of the energy goes towards the J16 site / my journal(all of these charts are from there) / videos / charts and trading, parallel to some other stuff going on lately.
---
On another note, this has got to be the crazyest environment around EVER. I wasn't around during any other major crisis yet, but even looking at various historical items and charts, this kind of moves magnitute seems pretty much near unprecedented except for maybe the 1980s stuff, which had 6000 pip monthly GJ bars..
As I just wrote to the journal - this should show everyone just how inflated all of this stuff was/is from 7-8 years of artificial one way bet pushing. IMHO this goes for commodities INCLUDING GOLD(nothing is a safe "only ever goes up" bet, PERIOD), too.
From the look of it GJ should go below 130 quite a bit(dunno yet when, but eventually, currently we're moving in thousands like it was nothing) and USDJPY finally move towards those low 90s / 80 areas I posted aaaaaaaaaages ago.
Thanks for spending the time setting this up S.
I hope others here study it.
Yea, no prob. I was lucky enough to be there for all of the crucial junctions so I was able to snapshot them. I have to say EJ / GJ progressed a LOT swifter though, but AUDUSD in the end did what it was supposed to.
I just think it was THE prime example for all of those super-negative attitude people that love to troll the nothing works/can be foretold principle. IMHO the market only has so many moves, and it simply repeats them ad nauseam, else there'd be nobody capable of getting anything out of it.
Heck, the simple fact that it "needs to move" imho is enough for a trading principle, and people have made several ones out of that alone, too.
So, maybe a good idea to keep a link to that progression handy for whenever the next troll flame war pops up
Hehe.
These charts are moving through just about ALL important levels like nothing.
I'm still blown away by the average daily ranges we are getting too.
Tell me about it. What's so evil is that the "lower" the value of USDJPY goes, the bigger the "lever" of it is against the carry crosses, you know?
Math and all that, multiplier. The lower in absolute the number, the bigger the change in % per incremental decrease and all that.
Could make for some rather terrifying outcome this year and next, as I really don't see why we shouldn't take out 80.00.
And if anyone asks why - Elliott Wave. Another thing everyone keeps trolling against being hindsight only and never working.
Ach heck, I'll post my hobby charts on USDCHF/USDX. As excuse for PA - there was an IB at s/r / fib at the end of 4 and a USDX 4h PB there on the 365 EMA when the likely 4th wave terminated.
The count doesn't have to be right - just the trades.
USDX / USDCHF count and updates(sorry for the first USDCHF being in german, it's the same as always in english - strong / normal C and so forth):
In case anyone is wondering why the futures aren't dropping anymore to keep up with the live indices. I was looking at them for the past hour going "Huh?".
I just saw this now.
Private ramble:
As if that helps. The tradeable value will STILL move on, it's just not visible..
I think some folks no longer have any grasp on the "free market" anymore, and ironically by imposing overregulation frenzy action now, are only exacerbating things even further. That, and ruining lives, markets and countries, but hey, details, right?
james16 Chart Thread
Nice one Swami =)
I must be sick! ;p 
)
Lustiger Bursche! 
